Thursday, September 4, 2008 - 11:29PM 
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Charleston Regatta fireworks
Click for slideshow
Charleston's Sternwheel Regatta ended last Sunday with the usual fireworks on the river. I was actually impressed with this year's display, which is typically several degrees larger than the one on the 4th of July anyway. From what I could tell, the shells were launched from three flatbed trailers on MacCorkle Avenue rather than the usual barges on the river.
Charleston's fireworks are always in difficult/impossible locations for good downtown skyline photo compositions, most of the time being at or east of the South Side Bridge. A private parking garage would have yielded the only way to get this year's regatta display in with downtown. I took the easy route and just walked up on the ridge behind my house to get this angle. There is not much that one can do to get a variety of compositions from this vantage point, so there's just the one here. The link above goes to a Flash slideshow of a few shots.
Thursday, September 4, 2008 - 5:06PM
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Giving up on Hanna
Update 5:06PM Thursday: No changes since this morning, other than the NHC finally giving up on calling for Hanna to reach hurricane status. Due to 1.) Hanna likely not landfalling as a hurricane, 2.) landfall being in the middle of the night, and 3.) the landfall location and intensity being identical to a storm I've already covered, I'm putting to bed my attention to this storm. And with that, I'm going off of 'standby mode' for a chase and ending the running updates to this blog post. If Hanna pulls a last-minute comeback and I decide to make a quick run to the coast, I'll begin another post with chase updates. I am now carefully watching Hurricane Ike for chase prospects and will start a post on that storm if it looks like an intercept will be doable.
Update 11:30AM Thursday: Hanna continues to have trouble getting it together, and conditions for strengthening are not forecast to exist before the center makes landfall. Models have shifted back to the east, with the track back over Morehead City. This would put the better winds in a very 'rural' area of the barrier islands east of Beaufort and west of Hatteras that have no road access. The only semi-coastal road here is on the inland side of the sound, again a very rural area with just a few small vacation home 'villages' and little else (no light available for a nighttime intercept). I was there last year during Gabrielle - there is just not much to see there even during the day other than trees. And, if the track shifts farther east, there is no road access to get over to Hatteras without a 5-hour circuit back inland and up to Nags Head.
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As of the 11AM update, I'm shifting my intercept status back to 'standby mode' and will stay home unless something changes. If Hanna can beat the odds by tomorrow morning, the NC coast is close enough for me to make a last-minute drive (the typical evacuation/preparation factors should not be issues to worry about).
Update 5:00AM Thursday: Hanna is still struggling to get organized this morning, losing its earlier development progress from Wednesday. Interestingly, Hanna's forecast track and intensity as of 5AM is nearly identical to that of Ernesto back on September 1, 2006. Ernesto strengthened slowly before making landfall at Kure Beach in the middle of the night, barely below Category 1 status. If the current forecasts are correct, this could be a 'deja vu' carbon-copy Ernesto chase.
The caveat is if Hanna continues to remain disorganized or weakens between now and tomorrow, in which case I may lean toward staying home. With an overnight landfall at the exact time and in nearly the exact location that I covered Ernesto in 2006, I won't be able to get much new footage than I already have (unless there are a bunch of new lightweight, unsecured objects in place at Carolina Beach). The timing of landfall means I could even wait until Friday morning to leave, giving a few more model runs and NHC advisories a chance to clarify things. Of course, Hanna strengthening and/or slowing enough to hold off landfall until daylight Saturday would make the decision easier.
Update 10:42PM Wednesday:
Hanna on IR sat at 10:42PM
Quite an impressive recovery today by Hanna, with a large area of convection establishing itself. The presentation on IR satellite at least looks like Hanna may be getting close to hurricane status again. Trackwise, it now looks like Morehead City is our starting point. Still an easy (and cheap!) drive to intercept. My last meeting at work tomorrow ends around 5:00, so if all goes as planned, I'll be in Raleigh by late evening.
Update 4:27PM Wednesday: Hanna is finally starting to look like a tropical cyclone again, and is beginning its forecasted move to the north. With Hanna back to being a player for a chase, unless something drastic happens to the forecast track or strength, my tentative plan is to head to Raleigh tomorrow after work. Landfall timing has been pushed back to Saturday morning now, allowing plenty of time to make adjustments. This is most likely not going to be a major storm, possibly another Ernesto (very little damage, no evacuations, etc) - but so close that it's not a big effort to get there.
Update 11:42AM Wednesday:
12Z Wednesday model tracks
Hanna has recovered somewhat this morning, with some convection returning. The models are now trending even farther east, suggesting a brief North Carolina landfall 'grazing' before recurving back out to sea. The intercept problem with a storm approaching this way is that a shift much farther to the east will keep it entirely offshore.
Update 3:47AM Wednesday:
Hanna on IR sat at 4:11AM
Tropical Storm Hanna is supposed to be somewhere in the center of the image above. There is not even subtle evidence of a circulation any more on the loop (animation). The NHC's last advisory already had Hanna as a weak tropical storm at 11PM, but I wonder if there is even much of a depression there now. Hurricane hunter aircraft are currently investigating the storm, and the results will be interesting. Conditions for strengthening are forecast to develop soon, but you need a storm to exist for intensification to happen. I would not be surprised to see Hanna downgraded to a depression or a tropical wave in the next NHC advisory.
The only upside to the chase situation is that the models have moved Hanna's track even further east, now showing landfall near or over Wilmington, North Carolina. With that being just a short jog down I-40 from Raleigh, from an intercept standpoint, that would be the best case scenario for me if Hanna manages to survive.
Update 11:43PM Tuesday:
00Z Wednesday model tracks
If you don't like the current forecast tracks, just wait a while and they will change. Quite a jump in model output tonight from earlier today. While all of the models are in good agreement, their run-to-run consistency has been poor - which means another jump could happen in the next 12-24 hours. Current intensity forecasts call for Hanna to be a fast-moving, low-end hurricane as it makes landfall. A chase is still possible, but I'm waiting to make sure that the track doesn't move back to the west and that Hanna doesn't struggle to make it past the 79 MPH hurricane threshold. Where it is now would give a good margin of error to make final-approach repositioning more doable.
Update 11:15AM Tuesday: Not surprisingly, things have changed today with the outlook for Hanna - which not only lost its hurricane status this morning, but models now show the track much farther west. If the models are correct, and the storm's center stays close to (or just over) the Florida coastline before making landfall in South Carolina, land interactions could keep Hanna from strengthening much. A hurricane coming in nearly parallel to the shoreline as shown is very difficult to intercept, as the actual landfall spot could shift 100 miles or more with the slightest change in track. The latest NHC outlook and discussion is not making me optimistic about a chase at this point. I am about a half day's drive or less from any spot on the Atlantic coast from Savannah northward, so I could go as late as Thursday morning to make a decision to go or not. As always, things can and probably will change, so again it's back to 'wait and see' mode.
Update 11:10PM Monday:
00Z Tuesday model tracks
Good agreement (relatively speaking, for 4 days out) from the models tonight on Hanna's general track direction, showing Charleston, South Carolina as our likely initial staging area if we (Bill Coyle and I) decide to pull the trigger on a chase. With landfall still 4 days away, this has the potential to vary greatly. Particularly since forecasts call for weaker steering currents during the next day or so, which would result in Hanna slowing down and meandering erratically. Unfortunately, slow and erratically moving hurricanes tend to throw models into confusion, so I would not be surprised to see those model tracks all over the place by tomorrow evening. With the angle of approach that Hanna is forecast to take, a shift in direction or speed could change landfall timing by a day or more, and location by a state or two. Not much to do now but wait and see.
4:12PM Monday:
Hanna on IR sat at 4:12PM EDT
No sooner than Gustav made landfall did Hanna reach hurricane status, and therefore demands attention in the form of another running-update blog post. With Hanna likely landfalling in the Carolinas making for a much less costly expedition for me, this will be a storm I will seriously consider covering. I am going into 'standby mode' today and will hopefully make the 'go or no go' decision by Wednesday morning.
| Just been on the NHC site, been watching it for years now, never seen this before in the atlantic.
- Posted by Mick from United Kingdom |  |  | |
Yep, definitely one of the most active bursts of simultaneous development I've seen so far. It will be interesting to watch what happens.
- Posted by Dan R. from Charleston, WV | | | |
Wednesday, September 3, 2008 - 7:49PM
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I'm not a rich guy
Materially speaking, that is. Ever since I got into the video business, I have always been interested in the new technologies and camera models that are coming out. The world's transition to high-definition has been especially interesting to keep up with. So as a result of running my own business coupled with my talking about some of this equipment, I find myself the subject of rumors that I'm a sellout rich guy with lots of money (made from storm video, sponsorships, etc) to throw around, treating a $30,000 camera like it's a toy I'd get just to play with for a while. It's kind of funny that to many, I have the negative reputation of the shady 'wealthy, high and mighty businessman' without actually doing anything to deserve it - not to mention not enjoying the financial benefits that normally would come with that reputation.
I live paycheck to paycheck now, I have for a long time. Why I'm sharing this on a public blog, I don't know - but what do I have to lose in saying it. The company I work for has been great with their flexibility, but being in West Virginia, our economy does not support most people having a comfortable income. We are working hard to get there, but it's been a long time coming. One of the reasons I got into stock video is that it offered the opportunity to bring in a little extra needed money every month. Getting into the video business wasn't easy. I had to buy all of my equipment on credit (not normally adviseable, but the banks would not give me a business loan). I took the risk and made the investment because I saw the potential for it to pay off through hard work, and for the most part, it did. I would have been able to keep this thing going in the long term, if it wasn't for the video market meltdown that happened in the past two years. My recent mistake was not shutting off the travel expenditures as soon as I saw the market dying in 2006, which means my revenue has fallen behind expenses. Add to that that last year's revenue spiked briefly (all of which went to pay off previous year's expenses), leaving me with a high tax bill. So, I've got some things to pay off for a while. It's not a dire crisis yet, since a few video sales over the next year or two could put me back in the black - but it's definitely not the big windfall that many people think I'm sitting here with.
No, I don't own this: Sony's HD XDCAM PDW-F350, about $45,000 with body, lens, tripod, case, rain cover, and batteries. You want good lightning and low light HD video for chasing? This is what you'll need.
You don't have to be rich or have $16,000 or $30,000 or $50,000 laying around to buy or even talk about a professional camera. Those cameras are not things that 'rich guys' buy as luxury toys. They are tools that pros buy to make money. Most of the time, and any pro freelancer will tell you this, you don't normally have all that capital in cash to make the investment. You usually have to borrow money to make that kind of purchase (just like a house or car). Some guys have used their entire home equity to get a camera rig. They weren't rich guys with money to burn or obsessed with the latest toys, they did their homework and knew it would likely pay off. All you need to buy a pro camera (unless you ARE a rich guy) is to have a solid business plan that ensures that the investment pays for itself. I never had the money lying around to buy equipment, I had to borrow it like most business startups do. I knew that there was good potential for the investment to pay off, otherwise it would have been stupid to do it.
No, I don't own this either: Sony's HD XDCAM EX1, about $9,000 with camera, memory cards, tripod, case, rain cover, and batteries. Good for low light HD video for storm chasing, but the CMOS chip will ruin all lightning footage.
If the video market ever returns (or if I am successful in getting enough corporate video work), I may look at the $16,000 cameras seriously - maybe even something higher-end than that. But I would never do it just to have the latest 'toy' - like most chasers, I have never been able to afford to do that and probably never will.
Nope, don't have this one either: Panasonic's HVX-200, about $9,000 with camera, P2 memory cards, tripod, case, rain cover, and batteries. DVCPRO-HD codec is good for HD lightning video, but the low light performance on the camera is terrible for general chasing use.
The point of this post? I'm more like the average chaser than some would think. None of my equipment was handed to me - I borrowed money to do it and worked hard to pay it off, with all of the frustrations, anxieties and obstacles that come with that process. Unfortunately though, once you get into business for yourself, you're usually 'guilty until proven innocent' with your peers. Maybe saying all of this won't change everyone's mind, but hopefully it will for a few.
So what do I use for HD? The Sony HDR-FX1, about $4,000 with camera, tripod, rain cover, and batteries. This (and its cousin the Z1) is the only sub-$10k camera that can get usable video in most chasing situations (lightning and modest low light), though it is lacking compared to the models above.
Sorry for the tangential issue here, back to watching Hanna now.
| As always, great post Dan!
- Posted by Clarence from Nashville | | | |
I think it's absurd anyone would have accused you as such...they obviously don't know you.
- Posted by Lisa from STL | | | |
Monday, September 1, 2008 - 11:44AM
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Hurricane Gustav inland
Update 11:44AM Monday: The Gustav forecast saga is over, as the storm's center has just made landfall on the Louisiana coast well to the west of New Orleans. Gustav weakened to a Category 2 storm before landfall. With that, this post's running updates will end.
The focus now turns to Hanna, which models are starting to agree upon the storm making landfall around Savannah, Georgia on Friday as a weak (Category 1) hurricane.
Update 12:50AM Monday:
Gustav on IR sat at 12:50AM EDT
Gustav has developed a 'pinhole' eye structure as it slowly strengthens in its final hours before landfall. It looks like New Orleans will see at least part of the eastern quadrant of the storm, with onshore wind flow and greater storm surge than the western side. The strongest surge and winds may miss the city to its immediate west. As with any hurricane, there is no way to rule out a shift in track either west or east as well as more strengthening.
Update 2:49PM Sunday: Gustav has yet to recover from its encounter with the Cuban terrain, and is running out of time to significantly restrengthen in an increasingly less favorable environment for intensification. The hurricane's presentation on satellite is less than impressive, with still no defined eye feature evident. However, ships and bouys in Gustav's path have been reporting very high waves - some nearing 50 feet - which may prove ominous for coastal areas when the storm's surge arrives. While New Orleans is not out of the woods yet, it appears that Gustav may not be the historic disaster that was feared. As always, things can change quickly - with a hurricane, it's 'not over til it's over' - on land, that is.
Update 8:00AM Sunday: Not a whole lot has changed with the forecast track of Gustav, but the intensity forecast has become more uncertain. The storm weakened more than expected after passing over Cuba, and redevelopment has been slower to occur than originally thought. Nonetheless, given the tendency for hurricanes to undergo rapid intensification over the very warm waters of the Gulf, Gustav is by no means a reduced threat.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Hanna is starting to become a threat to the Atlantic coast, with a Carolinas landfall as a hurricane possible around next weekend. If that scenario comes to pass, I will more than likely be heading there to cover it. It is way too early to make a call on Hanna, whos forecast track has been changing dramatically from day to day.
Update 9:56PM Saturday: Since Gustav is now becoming the major disaster threat that forecasts have been suggesting, I'm turning this post into running-update format where I'll add information as it becomes available. NOLA is going into full evacuation mode Sunday, and models are still hinting that the city is in danger of a direct hit. Environmental conditions in the Gulf (warm sea surface tempuratures and low mid- and upper-level shear) are paving the way for Gustav to make landfall as a stronger storm than Katrina. At the top right of this page, I'm posting links from my weather data page that I am using to watch the progress of Gustav.
2:42PM Saturday:
Gustav on visible and IR sat at 2:30PM EDT
I'd be slacking if I didn't post about Gustav like every other weather/chasing blog out there. Hurricane Gustav is now a Cat 4 and making landfall in Cuba. Its forecast track is taking it close to New Orleans Monday night, though it is too early to tell if that will verify.
I will not be chasing this, barring a last-minute call for a decently-paying TV coverage request (not likely). Louisiana does not have a coastline/beach for one thing (only swampy marshlands), and the post-Katrina authorities will likely make things very difficult for anyone there, TV people included. As others have already mentioned, it's questionable if I could even get there now with evacuations/contraflow starting soon. Hurricane video is actually one of my least-selling types of stock footage, so there's no financial justification to shell out the thousand bucks or so it will take to prepare for, drive to, and cover this thing. So I'll be content to let everyone else tackle this one.
And interestingly enough, I just heard thunder outside. I grabbed my camera and walked up into the cemetery to look, and didn't see anything but a faint outline of a small storm to the south. Nothing to see really. I don't think I'm counting it as chase number three for the month. The storms are firing on a weak cold front, with a nice associated clearing line approaching from the west. Things look crystal out west today, so tomorrow may be my New River Gorge day if the skies are good and crisp.
Saturday, August 30, 2008 - 12:59AM
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Another record chasing month
June 2008 was a personal record month, with the most chase days and highest number of quality photo captures in any single month in my entire career. And now August is about to become a record for just the opposite reasons. I have not embarked on a single out-of-town chase this month so far, with only two brief storm photography attempts within the city of Charleston on the 3rd and the 5th. Both storm events were at daybreak, just after sunrise when long exposures were impossible - and only involved a quick circuit to the Fort Hill and Capitol spots. As a result, I have not captured a single frame on my DSLR of a storm this month. In fact only have four digital photo folders (for end-of-day memory card offloads) on my storage drive this month, compared to 10 for July and 33 for June.
So, here are the numbers for August of 2008, using the June format for comparison:
August 2008 Stats
- Chase days: 2
- Individual chases: 2 (both in-town)
- Total storm-related digital photo files: 0
- Total "keeper" images: 0
- Mileage: 14 (two in-town storms)
- Shortest chase: 7 miles
- Longest chase: 7 miles
So this August has been the leanest storm season month (April through August) for me in 12 years. I have to go back to 1996 to find a spring-summer season where I had a quieter month (I only have a couple of negatives/prints of lightning from the entire '96 season). Back then I was living in my Montgomery apartment while on a summer work crew in between college semesters at WVU Tech. Montgomery is farther into the mountains than Charleston is, and therefore sees less storms. Not only that, but in that town, the 'horizon' if you'd call it that, is about 40 to 50 degrees up, with the terrain blocking the view of any lightning farther than a mile away (no wonder I didn't see anything that summer).
Come to think of it, chasing or not, I have not been out of the Charleston area at all for this entire month (aside from going to work in Teays Valley), which is also a first in a very long time. I never did any photography outings either - including my intended New River Gorge day last week due to all of the sky-mangling cirrus from Fay. With all of the tropical activity ramping up down south, crisp blue skies may be hard to come by for a while around here. At the very least I've been keeping demand for gasoline down (until I started driving to the office, I guess).
All in all, after a month like June, I can't complain. I'll gladly accept a lean month like this if it means I can still get a June 2008 every once in a while. The fall severe weather season is also coming up, and I'm not ruling out a hurricane trip, particularly if the Carolinas get a landfall. Even if fall is a bust, winter will be here before we know it - along with its usual subjects of interest. Until then, it's a continuation of the daily routine.
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