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Storm season blog kickoff; forecast update for March 14
Here we go! The 2015 spring storm season is arriving soon, so it's time to brush off the forecasting skills and start paying attention to what model forecasts are telling us about potential upcoming storm setups.
As is typical for March, a strong eastern trough/Hudson Bay Vortex has been anchored in place for weeks, keeping either weak or northwest flow over the central US. A few weak shortwave troughs have managed to punch through, but with little moisture to work with, haven't done much. Finally, the last few runs of the long-range models have been showing a breakdown of the deep eastern troughing and a transition to a more progressive pattern (progressive means that the jet stream is moving/changing instead of being stagnant). While this does always not herald an upcoming active storm chasing pattern, it at least clears the way for future western troughs to begin developing and moving through the Plains and Midwest
The pattern shown above is the GFS forecast for a week from the upcoming Wednesday. This is WAY too far out to put any stock in and WILL change, but it at least shows what we *could* be looking at once the eastern trough starts looseing its grip. Any westerly or southwesterly flow like this will probably yield a few storm setups if moisture can inch its way northward underneath of it. Nothing worth making a major trip for, but definitely time to start keeping eyes peeled for local opportunities. Otherwise, I don't see any major events on the horizon - but when the pattern starts changing like this, it's always possible for something big to show up suddenly a week out.
Since March Plains trips are very rare (I've only done one all-time "Plains" chase in March with a brief foray into Kansas in 2010), I used to start the Plains probability table a little later in the season. That being said, events like March 13, 1990 aren't out of the question, so I thought it might be fun to start the probability exercise early enough to account for that small possibility. Right now, the models show no chance for such an event on the reasonable forecast horizon, so trip probabilities will stay low through the end of the month.
The following table charts the probability of a Great Plains storm chase expedition happening for several indicated date ranges in the near future:
| 2015 Plains Storm Expeditions - Probabilities as of March 12 |
| March 12-20 | 1% | |
| March 21-31 | 5% | |
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Blog format notes: As with past years, any posts related to spring tornado setups in the Midwest or Great Plains will be marked and wrapped in this "storm season blog" sub-format. The tradition of the Plains trip probability table will also remain active this season. Why aren't Midwest tornado setups part of the probability table? Well, since I'm living here, no trip is necessary for those events (now that is a perk!).
It's been a good 5 months since there's been any severe weather here! Once again, it seems like a record quiet season. However, as we saw in May 2013, that can change any time, but not this month!
- Posted by Tim | | |
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