Storm Highway by Dan Robinson
Weather, photography and the open roadClick for an important message
Storm Highway by Dan RobinsonClick for an important message
This page shows all of the blog entries with the most recent entries listed first. If you'd rather reverse the order and read the blog from start to finish, in chronological order, click here.

September 22: Never say never

Wow. Now I'll never say a year's storm season is over until December 31. Before this day, I would have laughed at any suggestion that we'd see an F4 wedge tornado in Illinois in September. I also never thought we'd have another major storm photography day after our lean spring trip was over, let alone have it be in September, and furthermore it be successful! We ventured out for a big severe weather setup in Missouri and Illinois on September 22, and with the Lord's blessing, scored big. This tornado at Crosstown, Missouri was the biggest and strongest I've seen yet. We were the only storm photographers who intercepted and captured video of this storm, which turned out to be the 'big one' of the outbreak - rated F4 for extensive damage in Crosstown. Being the only one on the 'storm of the day' is not something that happens every day for a storm photographer, and certainly not something I ever expected to experience.

Full September 22 report with photos and video

June 15: 2006 season ends; moving on

I had been giving the 2006 storm season the benefit of the doubt, going so far as to extend our 'standby' period to July 1. But as each day passes, it becomes more and more evident that the classic spring severe weather season is at its twilight and well on the way to shutting down. Summer is knocking on the door, a time when the volatile spring patterns vanish into the stagnant dog days of July and August. Strong storms are of course still common in the summertime, great for things like lightning photography - but not offering anything worth pursuing on expensive and grueling long-distance storm photography expeditions.

So, today will officially wrap up our 2006 Tornado Alley storm season, and with it, our storm season blog for this spring.

As for us, our 'storm season' technically doesn't end with the Great Plains tornado season. There's plenty to keep us occupied year-round. Hurricane season is getting started, with Alberto already impacting a stretch from Florida to the Carolinas with wind and flooding. We'll most likely be making a few expeditions to landfalling hurricanes in the coming months, so stay tuned to the Storm Highway main page for tropical updates as well as photos, video and accounts from our hurricane expeditions.

With that, I'll close out our 2006 spring chase web page. Lord willing, we'll be back next April with our 2007 season blog. On behalf of our team members, I want to say thanks for following along with us, and stay tuned for next year!

June 3: Epilogue, back to standby mode

I parked the car in front of the house and turned off the ignition at 9:45PM last night, officially bringing an end to our 2006 trip. I was too tired to bring everything inside, a task I'll save for later today.

At first thought, we could draw the conclusion that this year's trip was at the least a major disappointment, and at worst a disaster. We saw no tornadoes and had major vehicle problems that stranded us for four days. But the reality is, this is storm photography. There are good years and bad years, and the bad years are nothing to get upset about. Tornado intercepts are rare events, so a dedicated observer must endure the bad years to accomplish that goal.

Futhermore, there were plenty of positives this year - the main one being the abundance of incredible lightning. I was able to gather a large amount of amazing lightning footage that I'd never be able to find east of the Mississippi. We also did very well with our forecasting and positioning - we were in the right location nearly every storm photography day. If major tornadoes had happened, we more than likely would have been able to catch them. We also were able to travel with one of the more technologically advanced setups, with internet access nearly the entire trip. In all, I'm satisfied with the 2006 season and am ready for next year.

Looking at the long-range models, a large west-coast trough is trying to take shape in the June 12-16 time frame. That week is already occupied with whitewater rafting and a Pittsburgh trip with my family, so any secondary Plains storm photography expedition will have to wait until after the 17th. By that time, we'll be past the climatalogical peak for tornadoes in the Plains, and any event would likely be either marginal and/or in the far northern Plains - much too far away for a short-fuse trip. At this point, nothing short of a surefire, synoptically-evident multi-day outbreak anywhere south of the Nebraska-South Dakota border will get us back on the road. It is this slight possibility that will keep us from shutting down our spring storm season operations completely until July. We'll keep the blog and the expedition tracker on standby for any such change of plans.

As for the car, it just finished driving the 1,400 miles from Bismarck, North Dakota to Charleston, West Virginia, with a half dozen hours of driving around touring downtown Minneapolis, Chicago, and Madison, for a total of around 1,600 miles in two days. No problems at all, except -

Ever since the fuel pump swap, the fuel economy has plummeted to an alarming 17MPG or less on the highway. I was averaging 23MPG before the repair, even with our full rooftop cargo carrier (I normally get 25MPG average on highway travel). We'd need to fill up every 5 hours or so of 70MPH Interstate driving. Now, we need to fill up every 3.5 to 4 hours. Our wind configuaration going home was actually more favorable, with a 5 to 15mph north to northwest tailwind behind the cold front the entire way from Minneapolis, and the Twin Cities to central Ohio is almost perfectly flat terrain.

So, in addition to having the Charleston dealership check the integrity of the old pump, I'll have to have them work on whatever is killing my gas mileage. It won't be free, that's for sure. Will Firestone or the Bismarck Ford service department help us out? I guess I'll find out on Monday.

June 1: Minneapolis, Chicago, almost home

The saga continues. We finally drove the Freestyle out of Bismarck at 7PM on Wednesday afternoon. After the fuel pump arrived in the morning and was installed by Firestone, the car still would not start. The mechanics were stumped, and eventually towed the car to the Ford dealership. After 5PM the Ford service department's senior master technician was assigned to our car. After 5 minutes he had located the problem. The inertial fuel cutoff switch (designed to cut power to the fuel pump in the event of a crash), located in the molding in the front passenger area, had worked loose from its connector. The Firestone techs had remembered to reset this switch, but not to check the connector. So, we're not sure if the fuel pump was ever bad to begin with. Tired of being stranded in North Dakota's tiny capital city for four days, we paid the $627 repair bill to Firestone and with great joy headed west. We took the old pump with us and will have the Charleston Ford dealer test it. If it turns out to be good, Firestone should refund us the bulk of our repair bill. That's a potential headache I'll worry about later. For now I'm glad to have my car back and on my way home.

The one thing that made the Bismarck stranding bearable was the fact that we didn't miss any tornadoes as a result. In fact, we didn't even miss much in the way of photogenic storms during the time we were stuck in North Dakota. In a way, we might have actually saved money by not spending $150 a day in fuel making daily marathon drives to South Dakota, Kansas, Texas and Colorado, as we likely would have if we had remained in an active chase mode. If I'm eventually refunded my repair bill, the breakdown might actually turn out to be a blessing in disguise.

We stayed last night in Minneapolis, and spent the better part of this afternoon touring the city at the guidance of Doug Keisling. We're now in Chicago, at our final hotel stay of the trip. Matt is getting on a plane from O'Hare to Raleigh tomorrow so he can make it back home in time to see his girlfriend Beth before she leaves on a long trip of her own. I'll be dropping Tom off in Huntington tomorrow evening when we finally arrive back in West Virginia, and I'll be back in Charleston late on Friday night to bring our 2006 storm photography expedition to a close.

As for as the rest of our observing 'standby' period that ends on June 12: the forecast models show little promise for anything expedition-worthy in the next two weeks, which means our 2006 tornado season is all but over. As always, we will be keeping an eye on any surprise setup that would be worthy of us making a quick 2 to 4 day trip back to the Plains before July 1 - but at this point in this already tornado-less storm season, even that seems highly unlikely. More than likely, we'll just start saving our money for next year.

May 29: Car problem identified, more days in Bismarck

Diagnosis: Fuel pump failure.

Estimated cost to repair: $450 to $650

With the Ford dealership's service department still closed, we pushed the car a block down the street to the Firestone center, which was open today. They were able to diagnose the problem as the fuel pump. The Bismarck Ford dealer was not able to find the part anywhere in the state of North Dakota. It will be tomorrow before the part can even be ordered, meaning it could be Wednesday or Thursday before we can get back on the road - extending our stranding in Bismarck to 4 to 5 days.

We spent the afternoon walking around town, and toured the North Dakota state capitol. We will probably rent a car tomorrow so we can find something to occupy our next couple of days.

The extra time also gave me a chance to work on some more video from Saturday's lightning show. Here are a few more screen captures:

May 28: Some photos from Saturday

6:27PM CDT: Still in Bismarck passing the time, waiting for Tuesday morning when American commerce comes back to life so we can get the car repaired. Here are a few video grabs from the sunset lightning show in Bismarck on Saturday night, just before the car died on us. Watching this amazing storm and getting these shots made the car crisis easier to deal with. Matt got a number of spectacular stills of this scene with his Canon 5D / L-series lenses - we'll try to get a few of those posted later today.

Video Clip, WMV 22MB

May 28: Day 7: An unexpected end

2:38AM CDT

Currently in Bismarck, North Dakota - and our storm photography expedition has come to a sudden close. Just south of Bismarck at 10:30PM, the car lurched, then stalled - then wouldn't restart. Possible engine problems of an unknown origin, nothing that can be fixed without a mechanic. After two hours of waiting, the AAA tow truck arrived and took us to the Bismarck Ford dealer. Of course, it's Saturday night on Memorial Day weekend, meaning we are going to become temporary North Dakota residents until at least Tuesday.

David and Eric will be riding back home with Kurt and Nick, while Tom, Matt and I will be stuck here until a repair shop opens on Tuesday. By the time the car is repaired, the last of the severe weather setups will have come and gone, meaning we will be heading straight home from here.

On a positive note, our chase on Saturday went great, despite the lack of tornadoes. We got some of the best lightning/sunset/storm structure combination photos and video I've ever seen (photos coming soon).

May 27: Day 6: North Dakota

8:57AM CDT - Currently in Aberdeen, South Dakota preparing to depart our hotel and head north. The target is still fairly unclear, but for now we are heading for somwehere in or east of the Minot-Rugby-Drake area in North Dakota.

May 26: Day 5: MO to SD

12:00AM CDT - We just completed the long drive to Aberdeen and are finally in our hotel. Dr. Flescher joined our crew in Kansas City, and in Council Bluffs, Fabian Guerra became the ninth person in our now five-vehicle convoy. We encountered a few photogenic high-based thunderstorms along I-29 just north of the Iowa border, and stopped for a few quick shots:

We are still evaluating data on tomorrow's expedition, and will likely be up early to head in a general northerly direction to our target in north central or northeastern North Dakota.

10:17AM CDT - We are going to try for the system in the Dakotas on Saturday (tomorrow). Our initially planned overnight stop is Aberdeen, South Dakota, a 13-hour drive from our current location in Wentzville, Missouri. After that it looks like an early morning wakeup and a long drive to eastern Montana or western North Dakota in time for storm initiation by early afternoon. Dr. Flescher will be joining us in Kansas City on our way there.

May 25: Day 4: Southern Missouri

Today we made a last-minute decision to pursue the surprise supercell setup in southern Missouri. We left Joplin at noon and headed east to the bootheel region of the state, watching storms develop as we approached our target. We observed several very photogenic supercells between Poplar Bluff and Sikeston, albiet high-based. We witnessed several wall clouds, RFD notches and possible brief funnels, but no tornadoes - although several of our storms were tornado-warned through most of their observed lives. Matt has some awesome Canon 5D structure shots from these storms. We ended the expedition along I-55 south of Miner, where we were treated to an amazing light show. Everyone caught nice lightning shots on their respective cameras. I filled a 60-minute tape with great lightning. Here are some shots:

We are likely going to bypass Friday's setup in western Kansas in order to make the long drive to a probable North Dakotan expedition on Saturday.

May 24: Day 3: Kansas, Missouri

6:50PM CDT We are sitting along I-44 east of Joplin, Missouri waiting for storms to fire. Whether or not that will happen remains to be seen, but parameters look good if convection is actually able to begin.

9:37AM CDT: Matt, David, Tom, Nick, Kurt and I are in Salina, Kansas pondering our next move. Thursday looks to be a complete down day, with no realistically chaseable severe storms anywhere in the Plains. Today's setup is very marginal, with a slight chance of storms to our southeast. Friday looks to bring better possibilities to western Kansas and Nebraska, although the forecast is iffy. Saturday's risk could be in Montana and North Dakota.

So, we are trying to decide about storm photography southeast Kansas today for at least some cumulonimbus and lightning shots. However, doing this would mean a farther drive north for Friday and Saturday.

The longer-range forecast suggests the Plains will not be very active, if at all, after this weekend. If that is the case, we will head home on Monday or Tuesday and plan on a possible second trip later in June.

May 23: Day 2: Nebraska, Kansas

1:11AM CDT: Chased in south-central Nebraska and saw this spectacular lightning-and-sunset accented shelf coud north of Hebron:

Currently in Salina, Kansas for the night, still on the fence about storm photography in Missouri on Wednesday.

1:10PM CDT: Our group now includes Nick Grillo and Kurt Hulst, who arrived last night. We're currently in Hastings, Nebraska at the home of Pete McConnell and family, who have graciously opened their house for our small observer convergence as we wait for the day's events to start. Pete has taken the day off work to photograph storms today's setup and will also be with us.

Our setup today has two possible targets - one near the surface low in South Dakota, and another along the dryline in south-central Nebraska and northern Kansas. Since we are already close to the southern target here in Hastings, we are leaning more toward choosing the dryline. If so, we're already in a decent spot. So for now, the plan is to sit tight and wait for signs of cumulus development. We'll adjust north, south or west as needed. Tomorrow looks like an expedition in southeast Kansas and Missouri, so we'll likely be paying Kansas a visit before today is done.

May 22: Day 1: Long travel day

3:24AM CDT: Finally arrived in Grand Island, Nebraska and are settled into our hotel. Had a slight delay in Nebraska City when our 750-watt inverter (the main power plant for our onboard systems) decided to breathe its last. We bought a replacement (and a second backup unit) in Lincoln, and got our power restored in short order. Earlier in the day, we did a whirlwind tour of downtown Kansas City for some urban skyline photography.

The potency and placement of the severe weather outlook for tomorrow is still uncertain. The forecast will be a difficult one. It appears that our Grand Island lodging spot will be a great place to start the Tuesday expedition, with likely very little traveling needed to our final target. The problem is that the setup for tomorrow is not very clear-cut and will depend on several yet-to-be-determined factors, such as the effects from overnight storms and the existence and placement of a forecast surface low pressure center in Nebraska. At this point, it appears we may be moving south possibly into Kansas, but we'll wait until morning to make that call.

Right now, storms in western Nebraska are moving toward us and could roll over us overnight. Nothing really worth staying awake for - our energy is better saved for the morning.

12:27PM CDT: We finally left Charleston at midnight last night, making it to east Louisville before stopping for the night. Currently sitting at a Flying J in Evansville, Indiana trying to download drivers for our webcam. The webcam is the only piece of our live tracker that has been having technical difficulties - but we'll hopefully have it fixed in the next hour.

Tomorrow still looks like a great storm photography day in Kansas and/or Nebraska. We're still leaning toward the Nebraska target, but we'll keep northern Kansas open in case the better tornado risk trends toward the southern end of the region. We will have a better idea of our target later this afternoon, and will likely revise it again in the morning.

As we approach Kansas City later this afternoon, there is a possibility of us seeing some severe storms that might be good enough to go after for our first official intercepts tonight. Stay tuned to our tracker page and our blog to see what we encounter!

And, just to declare closure on our annual month-long, anxiety-filled long-range model forcasting excercise ('stressfest' as Jason Persoff called it), with great pleasure I'm almost cerimonially making a final update to our probability table.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2006 Storm Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 22
May 21-27100%
May 28-June 40%
No trip0%

May 21: T-minus 2 hours, web site update

9:05PM EDT - Tom, David and I are here at our 'staging area' for last-minute preparations. Matt is on his way west from Raleigh, and should be here in the next couple of hours - at which time we will finally be officially starting this trip. I never thought I'd see the day! David arrived in Charleston this morning on Amtrak's Cardinal, becoming the first observer to travel east to West Virginia for a storm photography trip :) The four of us have a hotel room booked in Louisville for tonight, giving us a three-hour jump on tomorrow's long haul to Grand Island, Nebraska. This will be the last blog post from our 'home base' - future posts on this page will be from the road! We'll also be activating our Live Event Tracker page shortly.

1:30AM EDT - Tuesday continues to look like an excellent storm photography day in Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota, with a good chance of supercells and tornadoes somewhere in that region. As the date gets closer, we will be able to narrow down a more specific target. In the meantime, last-minute preparations continue, including a major overhaul of the Storm Highway main page to complement some of the new things we are doing with the vehicle on the trip. The Live Event Tracker page has also been redesigned and dressed up for its debut voyage.

Still yet to be done is a final clean-up of the car and some fine-tuning of our installations, which we'll have plenty of time to do this afternoon before we leave. The plan of heading out tonight is, so far, still a go. I'll be checking hotels.com for a Louisville, KY lodging spot sometime this morning.

Although it seems a little silly now, I'll make another update to the probability table. As you can see, I'm still too paranoid to type 100% into that first row. I know better than to tempt the weather with absolute statements about our plans. By the way, looking back through our probabilty tables from the past couple of weeks, it appears we did OK with our long-range forecasting excercises. All but a couple of our departure date forecasts gave the greater percentages to the time period when we actually decided to go. Does that mean we're getting better at reading long-range models, or did we just luck out? Yes, I know. Obviously the latter!

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2006 Storm Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 21
May 21-2799.9%
May 28-June 40.05%
No trip0.05%

May 20: Forecast update - One more day

The NAM (ETA) model is one that we haven't been paying much attention to, since it is a shorter-range model that only goes out four days. Well, today our first storm photography day (Tuesday) is in the NAM's window, and it looks very good. What's better, the NAM's forecast is in agreement with the GFS for Tuesday, and Tuesday is looking like a possible banner storm photography day if the models verify. Lots of upper level energy overspreading strong instability and moisture at the surface, good directional shear (wind direction turning with height) with backed winds at the surface. A classic tornado setup if it comes to pass.

The problems for the upcoming week could be the 'cap' (capping inversion). The 'cap' is a layer of warm air above the surface that suppresses convection/bouyancy of the surface air. The cap can be a good thing or a bad thing. We need *some* of a cap to keep storms from going up everywhere. Too many storms contaminate each other, and usually prevents any individual storm from organizing. However, too much of a cap and no storms will form at all - a 'clear sky bust'. If the cap is just the right strength, it will let a only few storms go up that will stay isolated, allowing them to feed off of the avialable energy sources without 'competition' from other storms close by. The models seem to be showing high cap strengths for next week, which would tend to mean storms might have trouble forming on some days. But if convection can start, the storms that do form will be isolated monsters!

After Wednesday, the bulk of the upper level energy shifts away temporarily, but good moisture and instability remains at the surface. Wednesday-Friday of next week could either be 'down days' or possible storm photography days if there is enough energy to break the capping inversion. Too soon to tell.

Memorial Day Weekend through next Tuesday looks very good on the GFS, with a big western trough moving into the Plains. Of course, that is too far away to get excited about, but the gist is that the patterns seem to be moving along nicely and not stagnating like they were the past 2 weeks. This means that even though we might get a few 'down days' with little activity, the inactive patterns will move out quickly to make way for the next active setup.

So, the Monday departure is still on, Lord willing and barring any drastic short-range model changes. Monday is the 'long haul' trip to get to the Plains from West Virginia (12 to 16 hours of driving). David's train arrives here in Charleston tomorrow morning, and we'll probably go ahead and leave as soon as Matt arrives from Raleigh on Sunday night, stopping somewhere between Lexington and Louisville for the night. This gets us a couple of hours' jump just in case our Tuesday target is far away, like in Colorado or South Dakota. If our target ends up being closer, then that will give us some breathing room for Monday night-Tuesday morning.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2006 Storm Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 20
May 200%
May 21-2798%
May 28-June 41%
No trip1%

May 19: Forecast update

Still holding to the Sunday night/Monday morning departure, due to the distinct possibility of Tuesday being an storm photography day somewhere between northern Kansas and North Dakota, with other storm prospects likely following later in the week. So, we won't make any changes to our departure date probability table today. The question now remains of how good of an storm photography day Tuesday will be, and how many opportunities we'll have after that. The latest model runs have toned down the severe weather 'ingredients' forecast to move over the northern Plains next week. If this is true, the difficulty of a successful storm intercept will be greater, but not enough for us to postpone our trip at this point. Not surprisingly, the longer-range model forecasts for the period through Memorial Day weekend and beyond remain highly inconsistent.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2006 Storm Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 19
May 19-200%
May 21-2795%
May 28-June 44%
No trip1%

May 18: Forecast update, chase tracker page and vehicle photos

Not much new to report on the severe weather outlook for next week. Monday still looks like the day, unless the models completely bust their forecasts. In fact, there could be a few expedition-worthy events starting on Saturday. But, because we thought the weekend looked quiet a couple of days ago, we opted to make other plans for things like work schedules over the weekend. So, Monday morning is the earliest we can leave. We may head out on Sunday night if everyone is up to it, just to get a 2 or 3 hour jump on the distance we need to travel.

As I type this, West Virginia is finding itself under a marginal storm risk, with severe thunderstorm watches already in effect. We could see a small amount of hail today and possibly some decent lightning, but not much else.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2006 Storm Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 18
May 18-190%
May 20-2795%
May 28-June 44%
No trip1%

Live Event Tracker
Join us on a virtual storm chase! Our new, improved Live Event Tracker Page features a live webcam from onboard our vehicle, a live GPS feed showing our location in real time, and a live feed from our onboard weather station showing current conditions from wherever we are. Our tracker page will go live as soon as we depart for our Tornado Alley storm photography expedition. Stay tuned!

May 18 vehicle photos: As promised, here are a few photos of the additional equipment we installed on the expedition car this week. We added a fourth LCD monitor for the second-row passengers, and a complete wireless weather station that records wind speed & direction, dewpoint, barometric pressure and rainfall rates. I have to add the disclaimer that such mobile use of these weather stations is somewhat controversial in storm photography circles, as they are not designed for this type of application - and consequently their accuracy can suffer. Things like the airflow patterns over the vehicle and temperature fluctuations on paved surfaces tend to skew some of the readings, so many times these factors must be taken into account when observing the data. However, the data from the instruments will be at the very least interesting to observe as we traverse the country, crossing fronts, drylines and other boundaries and entering and exiting storm environments.

May 17: Forecast & vehicle update - More good news

It appears we may finally be coming out of the dismal pattern currently entrenched in the Plains. Models are showing a significant pattern change starting this weekend that will break down the 'Omega Block' of troughs in the east and far west and a ridge over 'Tornado Alley'. Indications are that chaseable severe weather could return to the northern Plains by Tuesday. Models are still in varying states of disagreement about the pattern beyond late next week, but are trending toward the tornado-friendly western trough and southwest midlevel flow approaching the Plains.

So, as a result, we finally have a solid departure date to look forward to. Lord willing and barring a sudden and dramatic change in the forecasts, we will be on the road Sunday or early Monday.

Vehicle update: The Oregon Scientific weather station and additional LCD monitor arrived yesterday, and we have the mounts complete and most of the install finished. Stay tuned for photos!

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2006 Storm Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 17
May 17-190%
May 20-2785%
May 28-June 414%
No trip1%

May 16: Forecast update - Possible positives

We are cautiously optimistic about next week's observing prospects. While we are still dealing with volatile model consistency, it appears more and more that next week will be the time. Although the jury is still out on whether a major western trough will form and move inland, signs of possible smaller-scale setups for severe weather appear increasingly likely.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2006 Storm Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 16
May 15-200%
May 21-2760%
May 28-June 435%
No trip5%

May 15: Forecast update - In limbo

Not much to add today, since the models have had very little consistency from run to run since yesterday. The only hint we are getting is that early next week might not be the time to leave, as the models seem to be trending toward keeping the Omega block in place a few more days than expected.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2006 Storm Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 15
May 15-200%
May 21-2745%
May 28-June 445%
No trip10%

May 14: Forecast update - Yet another model downturn

8:53AM EDT: The latest model runs have backed off on the likelihood of severe weather in the Plains returning after late next week. The western trough is still there, but is forecast to still be out to sea in the Pacific and not move much, if at all, through the end of the month. When the models have widely varying forecasts like this each time they are run, they are said to be inconsistent and therefore highly unreliable. We are looking for some consistent result to show up that will give us some idea of what to expect. For now though, it's a total toss-up. All we can do is wait a few more days for a series of model forecasts to come out. New model runs will be out sometime after noon today.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2006 Storm Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 14
May 14-160%
May 17-203%
May 21-2746%
May 28-June 439%
No trip10%

May 13: Forecast update - Hints of a better pattern; podcast announcement

You've probably noticed that our blog is being updated more frequently this year, namely every day with forecast-related posts. We're doing this so you can see what storm photographers go through in typical storm photography expedition planning every season - the ups and the downs, excitement, disappointment, and anxiety that we deal with in the weeks before and during the month of May, even before we leave. We change departure dates daily at the models' whims once or twice a day. Although we all have flexible schedules, it's still a feat to plan for everyone getting together from different parts of the country on such a haphazard basis.

So on to today's long-term outlook. Models are beginning to pick up a western trough and bring it into the Plains during the last week of May. Given the inconsistency of the model forecasts recently and due to the fact that we are still talking about weather systems more than a week away, we are approaching this with cautious optimism. But, yesterday evening's model output and this morning's both looked encouraging, which was enough to ease our anxiety a bit.

Event Trip Podcast: On the departure day of our trip, we'll be starting a 'from the road' audio/video update for this season's blog, possibly in a podcast form. You'll get to meet our team members and hear what our thoughts are on current and upcoming storm photography days. Stay tuned!

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2006 Storm Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 13
May 13-160%
May 17-203%
May 21-2756%
May 28-June 439%
No trip2%

May 12: Forecast update - Model roller coaster

We went to Busch Gardens a couple weekends ago, but I feel like I'm still riding Apollo's Chariot. Forecasting for our Plains storm photography expedition has been as difficult as ever this week. Today's blog post has two parts, since I'm posting an update this evening.

I posted this early this morning: The long-range models have continued to indicate the east coast trough locking itself in place for an extended time, shutting the Plains severe weather maker down indefinately. Indications now are that the inactive pattern might persist through at least the end of the month. Our departure date now looks to be as late as around the 27th of May or beyond. There are some indications of a western trough taking shape earlier, but most models do not agree on this feature - and the ones that do have not been consistent in maintaining it from day to day. Unfortunately we might be looking at the possibility of not having an extended trip this year if the model forecasts verify, but we won't look at making that type of decision until it's apparent we absolutely have to. If we cancel our main trip, we will likely just plan to take a short-fuse 3 to 5 day trip when and if the patterns do change back to favoring supercells and tornadoes.

8:09PM: Now, the latest model runs look much better for late May, giving the 21st-27th period another chance. So, we'll make another dramatic adjustment to our probability table.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2006 Storm Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 12 (PM)
May 12-160%
May 17-203%
May 21-2747%
May 28-June 447%
No trip3%

May 11: Forecast update - Models flip-flop again

The new long-range model runs performed another one of their classic flip-flops today, and it was a major one. The western troughs that looked to take shape around the 23rd have been de-amplified and retrograded back west, essentially reinforcing the persistent east coast troughing and Plains ridging scenario. This makes at least the next two weeks, possibly even the entire month, look very unfavorable for severe weather in the Plains, and once again shifts the probabilites for our trip. It's par for the course for long-range models to change so much, and some would say it's even pointless to consult them this far in advance. They're probably right, but for storm photographers like us who have to travel a great distance to and from Tornado Alley, they're all we have to plan with. So for now, we'll just have to live with the inconsistencies and do the best we can.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2006 Storm Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 11
May 11-160%
May 17-2010%
May 21-2738%
May 28-June 452%
No trip5%

Event vehicle update: We have purchased a new digital weather station for the vehicle and have plans to install it by early next week, once we figure out the best way to mount all of the sensors and hardware. The weather station has a PC data link capability, so we'll likely be able to broadcast real-time observations to our web site from the vehicle. We also purchased an additional LCD monitor to be used by the second row passengers and will be installing it as soon as it arrives.

May 10: Forecast update - Some positive signs and a vehicle update

The long-range GFS is beginning to show signs of large western troughs taking shape and moving toward the central USA after May 21 or so. The map at right shows the GFS forecast for Tuesday, May 23. This is the first time this month that the models have shown a significant feature that would indicate the return of strongly active severe weather patterns to Tornado Alley. Once again, we are dealing with long-range model forecasts which can change dramatically from day to day - but it is encouraging to at least start seeing these types of possible patterns showing up on the horizon.

In light of these new possibilities, we'll look at Saturday the 20th through Monday the 22nd as the new possible starting dates for our trip.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2006 Storm Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 10
May 10-120%
May 13-161%
May 17-2030%
May 21-2741%
May 28-June 427%
No trip1%

Event vehicle update: In mobile chase gadget news, we're looking at the possibility of installing a Davis-type weather data station onboard the Freestyle before we leave. This station would record temperature and humidity while we are in motion in addition to wind speed, direction and rainfall rates while we are stopped. Ideally we will want to have this data recorded onto an onboard computer and sent live to our web site. Time and budget will determine whether this idea will pan out.

Also, I just took the vehicle to the Ford service center for recall repairs on the fuel tank, but it turns out that my model wasn't in the batch of vehicles subject to the recall. That was the only semi-major mechanical issue that had to be taken care of before the trip, so other than an oil change before we leave, we're good to go.

May 9: Forecast update - Long-term Plains shutdown

The trough that the models have indicated might anchor over the eastern USA is now forecast to last for two weeks or more, keeping most severe storms out of the Great Plains for the bulk of May. A similar pattern was seen during the 2005 season, where supercells and tornadoes did not start returning until after the first of June. The window for this year's trip ends around June 10, and if this forecast trend continues, it's possible we might once again actually be observing at the tail end of our annual 'standby' period.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2006 Storm Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 9
May 9-120%
May 13-161%
May 17-2015%
May 21-2741%
May 28-June 441%
No trip2%

May 8: Forecast update - Plains quiet for next week or two

The mid-range GFS model is showing a strong Omega-block type pattern setting up across the USA, with troughs in the east and far west, and a ridge in the central states (see map at right). This will shut the Plains severe weather machine down for an extended time starting late this week. The next sign of a western trough sweeping through is as far away as Sunday the 21st, but that is in long-range model territory that is subject to change dramatically.

We're looking less and less at a May 15th departure, thinking that date may need to be pushed back even further as it becomes clear exactly how long the Omega Block pattern persists. It is quite possible that our trip will run for a week or two around Memorial Day, which has actually been the traditional time for most storm photography trips in the past.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2006 Storm Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 8
May 8-125%
May 13-1615%
May 17-2030%
May 21-2736%
May 28-June 412%
No trip2%

May 6: Vehicle technology installation photos

As promised, here are a few shots of our new vehicle configuration. If you're a storm photographer also heading to the Plains, we want to extend an invitation to log on to our new Storm Highway Mobile Network when you're nearby. This season, our vehicle will be equipped with an onboard WIFI hotspot and web server. The server will maintain a current cache of frequently used weather data (updated as long as we have a cellular signal), such as SPC outlooks, satellite imagery and mesoscale discussions. The cached pages will be stored onboard the vehicle on one of our laptops acting as a web server, so that the pages will be available regardless of whether or not our cellular internet is up. If our cell connection has been unavailable for a long time, the data might not be very current, but it will still be there for viewing.

To access our network, park near our vehicle (or just get behind us at a safe distance on the highway) and connect to the 'Storm Highway Mobile Network'. It is an open (unsecured) network. Then, open your web browser and you should see a 'mobile' version of Storm Highway. From there just follow the 'internet access' link to the cached data. You can even browse some of our photos and video clips hosted onboard the vehicle server. If our cellular internet is working (if we are within a data coverage area) you can browse the web or check email, although it will probably be slow, especially if we are moving. If you connect to us while we are in motion on the road, all we ask is that you do it safely - that is, stay behind us at a safe distance (not alongside us) and have one of your passengers operate the laptop. Our vehicle is a silver 2005 Ford Freestyle wagon/SUV crossover with Storm Highway lettering.

If we meet you at a 'observer convergence', you are welcome to connect to our network for as long as you like. If we have internet, feel free to check your email and browse light-bandwidth weather web sites. Of course, we ask that you not try downloading anything huge (video, large photos, FTP, etc) as the bandwidth is limited.

So with that said, here are the photos! Click on the thumbnails for large versions.

Tom tries out the second Jotto desk. Updated power/comm console and right rear LCD monitor #3. Linksys router will broadcast our WIFI network. DVD (guess which) playing on monitor #3.

First and second Jotto laptop desks. Left rear LCD #2 switched to GPS navigation. Monitors #2 and #3 can be switched to DVD feed.

LCD monitor #1 serves as the driver's GPS display, fed from computer #2 in the second row. This frees up computer #1 to be dedicated to Baron ThreatNet radar. RIGHT: Monitor #3 switched to ThreatNet radar feed from front computer.

Closeup of ThreatNet radar on LCD #3.

A big thanks to Tom Mullins for helping to set this system up and making the ideas a reality.

May 5: Plains quieting down, postponing for a week or so

The latest model runs confirm our suspicions. We'll likely have a ridge and northwest flow after May 9. This means we need to put the trip on indefinite hold until a new pattern begins to emerge. We will keep watching the models and hopefully by mid-week next week, something better will emerge for the future. It's May, so there is plenty of hope. Last year this pattern set in and lasted for 3 weeks, which is very rare. Even if the same thing happens this year, it happening more than a week earlier - giving a lot of time for a pattern change before June. We'll set a second tentative date for Saturday-Monday (the 13th through the 15th) and keep watching for a western trough.

Just a note - severe storms can and do occur in ridged northwest flow environments, but the wind shear profiles are usually not supportive of tornadoes. Don't be surprised to see some moderate risks and even a few isolated tornadoes out in the Plains during the upcoming 'quiet' period. But, these setups are very difficult to photograph storms and rarely yield any success for storm photographers aside from lightning and some storm structure shots. We will be much better off to save our money for a better pattern that supports strong, multiple, long-lived tornadoes.

If you followed our blog last year, you know that this type of planning-hesitating-postponing-planning-again cycle is a normal thing in storm photography. We are completely at the mercy of the weather patterns and have no choice but to wait for them to cooperate. As long as we stay ready, patient and flexible, we have a good chance of being successful.

Now a note about our chase transportation side of things. We have installed most of the new vehicle components, and this afternoon we'll work on configuring everything. Postponing the trip will give us some more time to fine-tune the new configuration. Stay tuned for some photos of the setup later this evening.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2006 Storm Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 5
May 6-122%
May 13-1610%
May 17-2028%
May 21-2729%
May 28-June 429%
No trip2%

May 4: Hesitating a bit

Another close look at the available data is making us rethink the May 7-8 departure date. The possible scenarios that the models are presenting for next week (and beyond) range from very good to very bad. As we talked about before, the reliability of the model ensemble spaghetti plot is indicated by how much agreement there is between the individual members. As you can see by the spaghetti plot map at right, the individual members are living up to their 'spaghetti' name - they're about as out of agreement as you can get! This means there is simply no way we can even make an educated guess about what might happen past the 4 or 5 day mark.

The good news is that while no major outbreaks are apparent in the near future, it appears that the general outlook for May is looking better for storm photography than it did last year at this time. This means there will be storms to cover, and at least a minimal chance for tornadoes. Of course, that can change for the better or for the worse. Last year we had a persistent Hudson Bay low creating a trough in the east, with a storm-killing ridge over the Plains. This unfavorable pattern was held in place by a large-scale blocking pattern that kept tornado season silent through most of May 2005. We're hoping this year is better.

All this is why on May 1, we simply go into our 'standby' mode, ready to leave at any time. There is no way to plan ahead more than a few days with storm photography, that is, if we want to use our money to photograph storms rather than blue skies. We're still cautiosly holding on to the May 7-8 departure, but if things don't look good by Friday, we might postpone a few more days. Stay tuned!

We're still awaiting the shipment of parts for the vehicle setup that should arrive later today. Space is going to be tight, but we're finding creative ways to use every available cubic inch of storage in the car. Installation will be Friday afternoon, so stay tuned for photos.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2006 Storm Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 4
May 6-1210%
May 13-1622%
May 17-2022%
May 21-2722%
May 28-June 422%
No trip2%

May 3: Tentative departure date set

While nothing is 100% certain (as is everything with storm photography), it appears that the upcoming two weeks will be at least moderately favorable for severe weather in the Great Plains. We've set a target date of late Sunday, May 7 or Monday morning, May 8 as the kickoff of this year's expedition. If Monday looks like it will be a good storm photography day, we'll need to leave on Sunday to make it there in time. Otherwise, we'll head out Monday morning. This last little detail won't be apparent until probably Saturday, so stay tuned!

We're also pleased to introduce Tom Mullins of Charleston as the latest addition to our chase team. Tom has extensive computer experience, and has been instrumental in making a lot of the new mobile technology for this season work. Tom has already been on two of our long-distance expeditions this year to Missouri, Tennessee and Illinois, and barring scheduling complications, he will likely be accompanying us for this year's trip. We're still awaiting the arrival of several parts for our latest upgrades (outlined in yesterday's blog post) which should all arrive tomorrow. Friday is our gear and wiring install day, and the new setup should be ready on Saturday in time for our departure.

The main thing that could throw a wrench into our current plans is if the models begin to show a major 'death ridge' of high pressure and northwest flow setting up over the Great Plains in the next week or two. Right now that doesn't look like a distinct possibility according to the long-range models, but of course the models are known to flip-flop. Right now the best we can do is just get the ball rolling on the trip, and hope and pray that the weather doesn't throw us a major curveball after we leave.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2006 Storm Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 3
May 6-1220%
May 13-1620%
May 17-2020%
May 21-2720%
May 28-June 419%
No trip1%

May 2: Vehicle upgrades and forecast update

Event Vehicle Upgrades: We've got some exciting developments in the works for the Storm Highway chase vehicle this week. Stay tuned for photos of the completed setup! Our budget is allowing for some cool new technology that we'll be implementing for this year's trip. With the new upgrades, we will have the following items operational:
  • Mobile cellular WIFI - Our vehicle will be equipped with cellular internet access whenever we are within a digital cell coverage area. We will have a WIFI router to share this connection with anyone near our vehicle, both while we are stationary or in motion. 
  • Second computer mount - A second Jotto computer desk for the second row seats will be installed in the center command console. This will allow a second semi-permanent laptop computer to be operated for the two people riding in the back seats. This second laptop will be operating GPS and will also serve as the mobile WIFI web server. 
  • GPS navigation - Two computers will be equipped with GPS navigation receivers, one plotting our location on mapping software and the other on radar software. 
  • Satellite radar and weather data - We will be running the WxWorx Mobile Threat Net system for live radar and weather data fed directly to the vehicle. 
  • Live webcam - We will be feeding a live webcam image from the front of the vehicle over our internet connection to the Storm Highway web site's Live Event Tracker page every few minutes. 
  • Live GPS tracker - We will be broadcasting our live GPS position to the Storm Highway web site's Live Event Tracker page every few minutes. 
  • Additional LCD monitors - Three 6.5" LCD monitors will be installed in the vehicle to allow all passengers to easily observe radar and GPS navigation, fed from the primary and secondary computers. Two monitors will be installed on the second-row headrests for the third-row passengers, and the third monitor up front to allow the driver and front passenger to view GPS navigation information. A DVD player will be switchable into the rear monitor feeds to give passengers some entertainment on the long drives. 
  • Mobile WIFI web site - In addition to offering WIFI internet access, we will have a mobile-hosted version of Storm Highway accessable from the hotspot. Our mobile web site will have information on our trip, a copy of our storm season blog, photos and video from the 2006 and past years' trips, and some basic info about storms and observing. Anyone with a WIFI-capable laptop near our vehicle will be able to access the internet and our mobile web site, even while driving down the highway next to us. The mobile web site will be hosted on a computer onboard the vehicle, so it will be accessable even if our cellular internet connection is unavailable. 
  • Upgraded command console - Our communcations and power console from last season has been given a second level, with a power strip, camera chargers and a Jotto desk for a second laptop computer. 
  • Rooftop storage - Since we've reconfigured the vehicle for six people (driver and five passengers), we had to look to the roof for luggage space and additional storage. A large Thule rooftop cargo carrier will give us interior space for the people and the gear needed for the trip.

We're working to install and configure the above items this week, and hope to have everything operational by Saturday. Stay tuned for photos!

Forecast update for May 2: This first week of May is offering some acceptably decent opportunities for the Plains, but we've chosen to hold out for some time later. While a worrisome eastern trough is expected to set up later this week, long-range model guidance seems to suggest that more favorable patterns could begin setting up around May 9. So, we could be on the road westbound by Sunday, May 7. Our current budget now allows for a two-week expedition. Stay tuned!

April 18: First glimpse of early May pattern

This month is turning out to be one of the more active Aprils in recent history, in terms of tornado counts. Interestingly, most of these events have occured either outside or on the fringes of what is considered the 'classic' Tornado Alley. Will this active season continue, and will the month of May see tornadoes moving back into the Great Plains?

Long-range modelsThe NCEP Ensemble spaghetti plot (at left) shows the predictions of an array of computer models for the upper-level jet stream location 14 days from now, or around May 3. Each colored line represents the prediction from an individual computer model. When most of the colored lines trace a similar path, this shows an agreement in the various models - which means their collective forecasts can be trusted more that if the lines showed greatly varying paths.

As you can see with this graphic, the level of agreement in the different models is not very good - which is nothing out of the ordinary for a 14-day forecast. However, we can see a general shape emerging of weak troughs in the eastern and western US with an apparent ridge in the central USA. Although the western trough is normally a good feature to see, the trough is not all that amplified or 'deep' (extending far to the south). The overall jet stream is also appearing to set up well to the north of where we would like it to be for severe weather in the Plains. The pattern that the above graphic shows seems to suggest very warm temperatures across the bulk of the USA, with marginally stormy weather only in the far northern Plains for the first week of May.

Now in spite of all this, it is still way too early to judge what will happen 14 days out, even though the forecast models are beginning to reach into our storm season period. As we've said before (and experienced last year) these computer models are prone to flip-flopping wildly from day to day - so our consultation of the models now is essentially nothing more than a topic of conversation as we anticipate our departure date. However, as Day 14 becomes Day 7, then 6, then 5, then 3 - with each passing day, the information the models show us becomes more and more relevant and reliable. Furthermore, even if the above pattern comes to pass, we'll still have the whole month of May to go - plenty of time for the pattern to change to a more favorable setup.

You can follow the long-range forecasts with us by bookmarking and watching the NCEP ensemble forecasts. What we look for is a deep, strong 'dip' in the jet stream in the western USA. This pattern typically results in two major players for tornado events showing up: 1.) strong southerly winds ahead of the trough in the Great Plains, which rapidly transport rich Gulf of Mexico moisture northward and 2.) a series of upper-level disturbances and surface low pressure systems 'riding' the periphery of the trough and moving out of the Rockies onto the Plains.

April 10, 2006: 2006 storm season blog kickoff, anticipating May

Storm Chasing & Photography Expedition 2006 BlogWe're three weeks away from May 1 - the time when we go into 'standby mode' here in Charleston, watching for an active severe weather pattern to set up over the Plains. As soon as we get signs that a favorable setup for severe storms is developing, we'll be on the road heading west on I-64. Once again my brother Matt Robinson (metroscenes.com, raleighskyline.com, pittsburghskyline.com) will be in from Raleigh, North Carolina to make the trip west. Matt is a talented photographer and will be our official digital still photographer on our trip. Also joining us this year will be Army serviceman and observer David Draun from Illinois, who will have just returned home to American soil after active duty in Iraq. As usual, several other observer friends from across the country are still finalizing their trip plans and also may be teaming up with us for the chase.

If you followed us on our adventures last year, you know well that making specific chase plans this far ahead is a pointless pursuit. We're at the mercy of the weather patterns which will dictate when we leave and how long we stay on the road - which this year could be anytime between May 1 and June 12. As you saw with our trip last year, computer weather model forecasts tend to flip-flop wildly and are mostly unreliable more than one or two days out. That means we could have as little as one day's notice before we head west. But, that's par for the course - we're used to that kind of schedule. All we can do is stay prepared during our 'standby' period, ready to leave at a moment's notice. When we do we'll be sure to talk about it here.

Just like last year, this blog will serve as our reporting outlet for the entire storm chase expedition. We'll be posting reports, photos and video clips whenever we can find the time and an internet connection. Stay tuned to this site so you can ride along with us on a 'virtual chase'. If it's tornado and storm photos/video that you're looking for in the meantime, our 2005 Plains Event Trip and 2004 Plains Event Trip page has plenty from past seasons to keep you busy!

Above all, we'd appreciate your prayers for a safe and successful trip.

- Dan

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