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Trouble in data land
With each passing hour, it becomes more apparent that models are seriously over-forecasting moisture and instability for the upcoming series of setups. Actual observed dewpoints coming off of the Gulf of Mexico right now are still generally below 60°F (See this map). The Gulf is our moisture source for this upcoming system, and if mid-60s dewpoints dont exist there, it's hard to expect them in Kansas tomorrow or even Monday. It's bad enough that while I'm still planning on departing for the Plains on Monday morning, I'm starting to think that there is a non-negligible chance that this entire system could bust in the realm of tornado probabilities.
The real-world moisture situation (not in "model-land") will need to be closely monitored over the next 24-36 hours via surface obs and soundings. It's possible that chase funds and days off of work may be better spent on future systems. Consequently, I'm lowering the expedition probabilities for the next few days.
The following table charts the probability of a Great Plains weather expedition for the indicated date ranges:
|2013 Plains Storm Expeditions - Probabilities as of April 6|
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