Tuesday, February 2, 2010 - 6:14PM CST   
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Long, cold winter days ahead
About this time of year, I start watching the models for glimmers of hope in the form of a warming trend somewhere in the future. Yes, winter is far from over at this point - but sometimes even in February, the first surges of warmth from the south can be seen organizing for their eventual battle northward at the far ends of the long-range models. Sad to say, today I see no such sign. Everything points to another long-duration frigid surge - plunging temps back to well below normal values across the entire central and eastern US for a week, maybe even two. Model consensus seems to establish a persistent cold-air 'conveyor belt' (northerly flow pattern) that just keeps pumping Arctic/Canadian air from the north down across the central US which then fans out across the south and east.
Nonetheless, the overall upper air patterns remain active - in a 'split flow' configuration over the USA with frequent troughs/ridges passing through. A split flow pattern features two distinct jet stream paths affecting the continent rather than the usual single stream - referred to as the 'northern stream' and 'southern stream' (I added the arrows to this graphic to show the n/s stream jets):
GFS 500mb pattern for next Tuesday
In most winter cases, the southern stream marks the main boundary between the 'real' warm, moist air in the lower latitudes and cold air to the north. That is, we need the southern stream to be our dominant weathermaker in the US if we want any decent warmup or good chances for storms. A northern stream jet moving through in the winter typically will be working with colder air and won't have as much moisture available for thunderstorms. Unfortunately, the southern stream is staying too far south to allow any real warmup/thunderstorms for any locations north of the Gulf coast regions. Both northern and southern stream systems can produce winter storms, either together or separately - which is what we've been dealing with lately and will be for the next week or so. Yet another major storm will affect the country later this week, possibly dropping another foot of snow in the WV mountains into the VA/NC Piedmont. For St. Louis, the aforementioned storm may drop a few inches of snow on Thursday-Friday as it gets organized during its trek eastward.
Other than that, it's just a matter of riding out the rest of this month. It won't be too long. Eventually we will start seeing those signs of impending spring on the long range models, typically well before March 1. We always know spring will start and win the battle - it's just a question of when.
Thursday, January 28, 2010 - 1:08AM CST
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Major winter storm from Plains to the Atlantic
Winter Storm Forecast Links:
Day 1 Snow: > 4" | > 8" | > 12"
Day 2 Snow: > 4" | > 8" | > 12"
Day 3 Snow: > 4" | > 8" | > 12"
Freezing Rain: Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3
US NAM MODEL SNOWFALL | US GFS MODEL SNOWFALL
Above are the most frequent links I use regularly to keep tabs on upcoming winter storms. "Day 1" means in the next 24 hours, Day 2 means 24-48, and so on. The last two links are commonly-referenced snowfall forecast model outputs. These links update automatically twice a day.
Models have had this system laying down a continuous 200-mile wide swath of snow and ice from the Rockies all the way to the Atlantic, affecting the Plains all the way through the Carolinas and Virginia. There has been a lack of consistency in storm track as well as depth and degree of surface cold air and warm air aloft. What this means is that forecasting precip types and total snow/sleet/ice accumulations for any given area has been next to impossible. What we do know is that along an east-west line somewhere around the I-40 corridor, there will be heavy snow, and south of that somewhere line will be sleet and freezing rain - potentially extreme in some locations.
St. Louis looks to be right on the northern edge of the storm, with our precip types likely staying all snow. A slight deviation in the storm track could mean either a major storm or nothing at all for us here. The other areas I'm monitoring are my old home areas of the Appalachians and the Carolinas - the latter of which could see crippling ice and/or snow over the weekend. West Virginia's impacts should not be anything historic or unusual, with anywhere from 2 to 8 inches of snow in Charleston - but a high-impact event nonetheless. North Carolina/Virginia has the potential to see a significant ice storm south and major snowstorm north.
As for coverage efforts, I'm not planning to do much if at all with this. I've just recovered from a pretty nasty 6-day long cold, and am in no hurry to get sleep-deprived and exhausted outside during a storm so that what's left of the virus can take hold again. St. Louis' impacts from this will likely not be newsworthy compared to what will be happening in numerous locations elsewhere, so I doubt any work I put into the storm would pay off. As always, if I'm feeling up to it, I may venture out to see what's going on for a couple of hours here and there. At the very least, I'll be posting periodic photos and updates from here at home in New Baden.
Sunday, January 24, 2010 - 5:13PM CST
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A couple of photos, another cold week ahead
Stuck inside this weekend with a fairly miserable cold, with so far, not much going on weatherwise to get out and see anyway. The current system sweeping through has managed to produce sporadic lightning around the STL region, though nothing worth setting a camera up for. I managed to see a few distant flashes and hear a couple of rumbles of thunder here in New Baden, but nothing else to speak of.
Looking ahead, another major winter storm is in the cards for the Midwest later this week, around the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. Precip type is still in question, but this could be an ice storm, a snowstorm or a combination of the two for St. Louis - with freezing rain, sleet and snow all possible. A big part of the Plains and Midwest will see impacts from this system - so it is one to watch.
And just to keep some content flowing, here are a couple of photos from this past week. This first is a sunset over a passing train in New Baden - shot from the edge of the apartment building property. This has been a fairly common scene at sunset, as trains are frequent on this line. It seems like there is always one going by right as the sun is approaching the horizon. So maybe there will be more of these opportunities in the future.
click to enlarge
This is another common scene around here - large flocks of birds flying in interesting formation patterns.
click to enlarge
That's all for now. Depending on how I'm feeling by mid-week, I may venture out to do some coverage of the winter storm - in which case I'll start a running-updates post.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010 - 1:25PM CST
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The dilemma of a news photographer
There has always been a general rule in journalism to not get involved in the story you're covering. Doing so could result in the course of events being altered, causing at the least, the news report to not being entirely representative of reality, and at the worst, a needed story/message never making it to the public. But photographers, in the course of their work, often find themselves in situations where they could intervene in a story and thereby change the outcome. It's a tremendous catch-22 for the photog. Do you intervene and ruin the story/shot, or keep rolling and just do your job?
I have found myself in this dilemma with icy road coverage. A few times, I have come upon situations (particuarly with an icy bridge) where by virtue of being present there, I have the power to prevent what would be certain accidents - by warning approaching drivers (if it is safe for me to do so). So far, when this has happened, I simply haven't been able to separate myself from the story and keep rolling as a 'fly on the wall'. In some cases, I've driven hundreds of miles and/or stayed up 24-36 hours to cover an event, only to go home empty-handed because I was there at a risk zone to warn motorists - by flashing my lights, running my lightbar (gasp), waving my arms holding a flashlight, and doing anything but setting up my camera. The worst of these instances was a three-day trip to Hickory, NC to cover an ice storm in December of 2005, in which I spent the height of the event at a glazed-over bridge over I-40, frantically warning people to slow down before they hit it.
Those instances have left me pondering this very subject on the long, empty-handed, financially-lossed drives home. It brings up a very deep dilemma that news photogs sometimes face. If you consistently don't get the shots you need because you get involved in your stories, you could lose your job. In my case, as a freelancer, I see the immediate and certain effect of not getting paid for my work efforts when this happens. I've spent large amounts of energy, time and out-of-pocket money to cover an event, only to eliminate all chances of even covering costs by preventing the capture of footage that pays the bills. No footage sales mean I eat the cost of the coverage - and lose money. It's not a sustainable business model.
Sure, it feels great to go home knowing that I may have stopped a crash - maybe even saved someone's life. I would have a hard time sleeping at night to know that I could have stopped a serious accident and yet deliberately chose not to. For these reasons I will never regret my decisions to warn drivers. But if I consistently try to play the 'hero', my income dries up, I eventually run out of money and my coverage efforts must cease. And at that point, the outcome of any future event remains the same as if I was there and just let accidents happen without any warning efforts. The accidents happen either way.
A photographer simply cannot be a 'guardian angel' and spend their time going out on the highways to warn drivers. How could he/she keep doing it? Would gas stations allow a photog doing this to fill their tank for free? Would grocery stores and restaurants give him/her free food? Would banks allow them to skip a mortgage payment or two? A photog doing this will quickly either lose his/her job or go out of business (in the case of a freelancer). So at that point, the accidents will happen one way or another. They happen just the same whether the photog stays home or whether he/she is there rolling tape. So the question arises, which one of those is worse?
When accidents-on-tape make air, they are seen by millions of people. It's hard to imagine that someone who watches dramatic video of a crash on tape won't think just a little more about highway safety after seeing it. And maybe, the next time they're out on the roads, they might change their behavior enough to prevent their own accident someday. Out of the millions of people who see a crash video, it's hard to imagine that this wouldn't happen to at least a small percentage of viewers.
Contrast that with the alternative - the crash gets no coverage, never gets airtime, and is forever forgotten along with the thousands of others that the weather event caused. Most of us don't like bad news - but what if bad news never received coverage? We'd never improve, we'd never be prepared for dangers, we'd never learn from the problems that life can throw our way.
So far, the accidents I have caught on tape were situations where I had no way of safely providing any useful warning to drivers. Standing along icy I-64 in Charleston waving at 60mph highway traffic is not only risking my own life, but could actually trigger different accidents that may not have happened had I not been doing it. These situations are ones I prefer, as they allow me to avoid the dilemma of having to choose to either do my job versus try to change the outcome of the story before me. And many times lately, I just don't attempt to cover some events - because I know that any situation where I could get dramatic video may also be one that I could probably prevent the incident from happening. I'd be doing a service to the public, but spending my way to bankruptcy in the process. I can't afford to go on long trips to be a 'highway danger warning officer' out of my own pocket.
And so, with many events I cover, I'm faced with this quandary. If I film accidents that I could have prevented by warning drivers, I'd become the scourge of society and bear the weight of public criticism as a heartless bystander who failed to act. But if I know a coverage trip will result in me warning drivers and preventing the capture of footage that pays the bills, I'll just stay home, as I can't afford that financially unsustainable scenario. In which case, the aforementioned accidents happen anyway in my absence - without news coverage.
 | I think one of the problems you face is that when ice video is spectacular enough to be rebroadcast across the country, an affiliate picks it up and makes light of it.
"Check out this amazing video of the ice rink in Charleston earlier today; boy I'm glad weather in Oklahoma isn't like that today; Rick, how does that weather look for the next 7-days?" (pitch....)
Never is there a safety lesson involved or a graphic about what to do in icy situations or information on icy roads in the area because that area is not currently experiencing ice.
We only get the warnings DURING an event. So the idea of making an example of cars and people getting damaged on icy roads through video played on the news is a lost cause unless that news is broadcast to the audience experiencing the adverse weather because then, and only then, will they relate.
Your focus on the lobby for more warning products is probably your best bet. News will follow the lead by NOAA/NWS and the rest will work itself out over time, I hope. My opinion only...
- Posted by SMOK from Moore, OK |  |  | |
Yes that frustrates me as well. YouTube commenters are no different either. Many see it as comedy. I think it's a result of just about everyone ignoring/not knowing about the degree of impact. I feel thankful that up to this point I haven't had to watch someone lose their life in a crash. Going out there is definitely not fun - cold, exhausting and dangerous - and if I can figure out that the footage doesn't make any difference, I'll be more than happy to quit trying to get it. Already I love being in the STL area and not having a notorious bridge to worry about missing newsworthy action with. Staying inside during the winter is a lot easier to deal with.
- Posted by Dan R. from New Baden, IL | | | |
Tuesday, January 19, 2010 - 4:01PM CST
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WeatherBrains
LINK: WeatherBrains podcast
Thanks to Bill Murray and James Spann for the invitation to be a guest on the 'WeatherBrains' internet radio show to discuss the icy road hazard subject.
| Great show! Nice job! Have to get you on my internet radio show/podcast as well sometime:
http://postitcast.mevio.com/
Let me know if you are interested!
- Posted by Michael W. Moss from New Whiteland, IN | | | |
Sunday, January 17, 2010 - 9:41PM EST
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First thunderstorms of 2010?
Update Tuesday 1/19: Looks like our first storms may actually arrive here overnight tonight! I had written off Wednesday's potential due to limited instability concerns, but it appears as if we'll get at least enough elevated CAPE for some lightning.
Originally posted on Sunday: The GFS model is showing some moisture return off of the Gulf starting this week, with a strong system taking advantage of it around Friday-Saturday. 50s dewpoints are shown making it nearly to St. Louis on Saturday, with a decent wind field from the surface to aloft. A big slug of heavy precip is shown Saturday. All of this suggests at the least, some lightning; at the most, a severe weather event. As with most winter setups, better chances for both increase toward the south.
GFS dewpoints for Saturday
Climatology doesn't favor much happening with this, and I'm a little skeptical of the Gulf's ability to produce the advertised moisture returns due to its repeated water temp-lowering arctic air intrusions as of late. We'll see if surface obs and soundings in the coming days show any moisture of a useful depth actually coming onshore. After that I'll know how optimistic I should be.
I think lightning at home may be a good bet - a great first use of all of the 360-degree sky views at my disposal. At any rate, this is the type of system that living in the lower Midwest will improve my chances of seeing anything 500% more over living in WV (without having to leave home, that is). Gulf moisture surges in winter-early spring usually have few problems making it to STL and points north - while the southern Appalachians typically cut off the higher dewpoints as the southerly surface flow moves eastward.
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