In September of 2025, my work is generating the most income it ever has in my career. Yet, I'm being forced to shut down my successul operation, against my will, due to one cause alone: 95% of that revenue is being stolen by piracy and copyright infringement. I've lost more than $1 million to copyright infringement in the last 15 years, and it's finally brought an end to my professional storm chasing operation. Do not be misled by the lies of infringers, anti-copyright activists and organized piracy cartels. This page is a detailed, evidenced account of my battle I had to undertake to just barely stay in business, and eventually could not overcome. It's a problem faced by all of my colleagues and most other creators in the field.
2010 Storm Expeditions - Probabilities as of April 21
April 21-24
99%
April 25-30
55%
May 1-5
50%
Update 11:25AM CDT Tuesday: 12z NAM continues to not show any real reason to not chase tomorrow and Friday. So, the trip is a go, barring unforseen cirumstances. My only concern about Friday is that the warm front here at home in eastern MO/SW IL may be a viable play for tornadoes, so much so that I might have to make a marathon drive back here after Thursday's chase (I hate to miss potential tornado events close to home, even if something better is elsewhere). Oklahoma also looks good on Friday, so if it keeps that way I might stay out. A drive to Memphis on Saturday may be in the cards also.
Update 9:53PM CDT Tuesday: The 00z NAM hasn't changed things much. This is looking more like a go - initiation won't be an issue (there will be storms), and enough ingredients are in place to make for a decent tornado threat. Still a lot of time for changes, but looks like the venerable old chaser convergence town of Shamrock, TX (I-40 near TX/OK border) may be the tentative starting point on Thursday morning. Unless the 12z models go haywire tomorrow, I'll probably head west by mid-afternoon.
Update 2:27PM CDT Tuesday: The 12z NAM, GFS and Euro models are in good agreement in maintaining the parameters on the dryline for Thursday in terms of upper support, low-level wind fields (850mb to surface), moisture, and convective inititation. As a result, I've increased the Plains trip probabilities for this week to 75%. The plan, Lord willing, is to leave after the 00z model runs Wednesday evening, with a stopover somewhere around the Joplin/Tulsa areas - then heading west on I-40 to the TX/OK border Thursday morning. It's too far out to call specifics, but the early-day target will probably be north and west of the I-40/TX/OK border intersection point. If the models stay consistent, I might leave earlier in the afternoon to make the drive easier. Waiting until late evening would give the models and realtime data a chance to hint that the setup was headed for the trash at the last minute - but I don't see that happening this time. I'll be worried only if there aren't deep 60+F dewpoints well on their way to the target area by late afternoon tomorrow.
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From Dan: Please Read
To my regular readers, I offer my apologies for this heavy-handed notice. Unfortunately it has become necessary, so please bear with me!
Please don't copy/upload this site's content to social media or other web sites. Those copies have been a critical problem for me, seriously harming this site and my photography/storm chasing operation by diverting traffic, viewers, engagement and income. "Credit" and "exposure" does not benefit this site or my operation, rather they threaten my ability to cover my operating expenses. Please read my full explanation for this notice here.
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