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Storm chasing forecast update 8, for April 13
As the Gulf slowly recovers from the previous mega-cold front sweeping across it, moisture return is shown by models to gradually improve as continued upper-level waves ripple across the country in the coming 2 weeks. There appears to be an abundance of days with overlapping instability and upper-level flow in our future, each with at least lightning potential in both the Plains and Midwest. The main caveat seems to be the cap - a layer of warmer air above the surface the hinders storm development. Many of the upcoming setups show a strong cap that in some cases, completely supresses storm development despite otherwise favorable parameters.
Currently, the biggest potential event in this sequence is shown to be around Monday the 21st as a big shortwave trough ejects across the nation's midsection. We're still too far away in time to say much about that, but models currently hint that this could be a Midwest rather than a Plains event.
GFS 500mb forecast for Monday, April 21
Despite the numerous days with moisture and upper-level support, none of these (aside from the 4/21 system) are standing out as big chase days and therefore my optimismm for any of them prompting a Plains trip is currently low. Nonetheless, local lightning chase days could be plentiful.
The following table charts the probabilities for a Plains storm chase expedition taking place for the date ranges shown:
| 2025 Plains Chase Expeditions - Probabilities as of April 13 |
| April 13-18 | 5% | |
| April 19-24 | 10% | |
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