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Sunday, March 30, 2025

Storm chasing forecast update 7, for April 8

By DAN ROBINSON

Editor/Photographer

In a typical spring season, most of March is spent looking at models for the first severe weather setups and signs of the permanent arrival of warmer temperatures. That state was non-existent this March, as we had one of the most active I've experienced (see the March-April recap page for those results). Now that the active period has passed, it's time to start looking ahead again.

The two main indicators of warmer weather (and storm potential) that I look for in models are the 850mb temperature and surface moisture charts. Below-freezing temperatures at the 850mb level (a few thousand feet above the ground) indicate that colder weather and even snow are still possible. Below-freezing 850mb temps hanging around in southern Canada means that cold could easily be pulled down into the middle of the country on the back side of any big trough. In tandem with that is the surface moisture situation. As warm weather becomes entrenched, surface dewpoints see a more or less permanent-for-the-season rise above 50°F or so across the center of the country. If winter is still hanging on, we'll see drier air with the deep moisture being confined south of the Gulf coast. Cold 850s and dry surface air also mean the potential for severe storms is very low.

So what do those two things look like right now? Not great for storm chasers and those wanting to see cold weather permanently exit for the season. Very cold 850mb temperatures are becoming entrenched across the eastern USA on the back side of our latest trough, with a hard freeze happening for much of the Midwest and northeast US. And the medium-to-long range models don't show the cold air in Canada abating any time soon.

While posting model graphics more than 7 to 10 days out is typically frowned upon, they do show what can result if that cold air doesn't start retreating farther north. Virtually all long-range models and ensembles show some variation of repeated deep cold intrusions at 850mb, and moisture-scouring cold fronts into the Gulf, continuing toward the end of April. This means continued cool temperatures and low severe storm chances for as far out as we can reasonably expect. There is *some* meager moisture showing making its way north from time to time ahead of each wave, enough to give us some thunderstorm and lightning chances, but not great ones.

GFS 850mb forecast for Tuesday, April 22

This means we're likely looking at an extended break in storm chasing until the end of the month, with very low probabilities for Great Plains-worthy systems.

The following table charts the probabilities for a Plains storm chase expedition taking place for the date ranges shown:

2025 Plains Chase Expeditions - Probabilities as of April 8

April 8-14

April 15-22