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November lightning in Charleston
I wasn't planning on observing tonight, but these storms were making enough noise outside that I decided to go and see what they were doing. The link to the expedition log is below.
Event log with video
Daylight saving time changing this late in the year is really a rude awakening - it was dark when I left, just before 6:00PM tonight.
Icy road forecast update
Tonight's new model forecasts are out (the 00z runs) and the outlook has not changed much since the last update. If anything, the models have scaled back the QPF slightly northward and raised the low temps a degree or two, edging the forecast a little more in the direction of a no-ice outlook for Charleston. However, as I mentioned before, small snowfall accumulations (the kind that makes bridges icy) can escape being indicated by model QPF output. Both models show a ribbon of warmer air coming in over central WV which would further hinder the lower elevations from dropping below the freezing mark. At this stage I'm giving Charleston a 15% chance of an icy road episode early Wednesday morning between midnight and sunrise. However, subfreezing snowfall and resulting icy bridges look like a sure thing now in Beckley, Lewisburg and all of the mountain areas above 2000 feet in elevation. Early-morning commuters in the area should be on the lookout for icy bridges - if you wake up to snow on your car, the bridges might be the same way.
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