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Event forecast update for the week beginning April 23
Just a quick update to comment on the forecast for the upcoming week.
After some fluctuating in the past few days, both the GFS and ECMWF
(European) models are indicating the likely return of a southwesterly
upper jet to the Great Plains by midweek. This is thanks to a western
US upper trough moving in from the Pacific coast. Low level wind
profiles and moisture return become classically favorable for tornadoes over the Plains in
response to the jet from Thursday-Saturday, and possibly afterward. While these setups don't look quite as 'outbreakish' as the last ones, they still should provide a few good 'Moderate Risk' storm observation days for those able to make it out.
Due to these setups coming right on the heels of my last trip, and
again falling across Friday and Saturday (the most difficult work days
for me to call off), I will be sitting this system out. Otherwise,
it looks like a good system to make an expedition for (more than
one day of tornado setups in the Plains). If I were able to make the
trip, I'd leave Wednesday night and plan to stay out until at least
Sunday. However, with non-weather factors tying me down, I'll be
relegated to 'armchairing' this one. A bit of a downer, but I really
can't complain about my 2012 season after my last trip.
If the system provides Midwestern severe storm opportunities as the
trough ejects eastward on Sunday or later, I will most likely be able
to get out for an expedition or two in Missouri, Illinois and/or Indiana.
I'll comment more on the Midwestern angle of this system as models
become more clear on what we'll see in MO/IL/IN (if anything).
Also, interestingly enough, it appears a northwest flow supercell event may happen from northern Missouri on this Tuesday evening (the 24th) through Illinois overnight into Wednesday morning. This very well may be an expeditionable event for some nighttime supercells with large hail, and of course, lightning opportunities. I may or may not get around to another blog post before Tuesday, so stay tuned to the Facebook or Twitter feeds for updates as this potential event draws closer.
Beyond the end of the month, the chances of another Plains trip are still too uncertain to state with any confidence, but will increase as we move into the climatological peak of the season.
The following table plots the chance of a Plains weather expedition happening
in a particular date range (Midwestern storm observation days are not factored into this table):
|2012 Plains Storm Expeditions - Probabilities as of April 22|