In September of 2025, my work is generating the most income it ever has in my career. Yet, I'm being forced to shut down my successul operation, against my will, due to one cause alone: 95% of that revenue is being stolen by piracy and copyright infringement. I've lost more than $1 million to copyright infringement in the last 15 years, and it's finally brought an end to my professional storm chasing operation. Do not be misled by the lies of infringers, anti-copyright activists and organized piracy cartels. This page is a detailed, evidenced account of my battle I had to undertake to just barely stay in business, and eventually could not overcome. It's a problem faced by all of my colleagues and most other creators in the field.
Over the past 48 hours, multiple models have started to indicate - with consistency - a observing-favorable pattern beginning around next weekend, and continuing long-term. What some of the runs have been trending toward is a pattern for multiple-day supercell and tornado events like we haven't seen in many seasons in the Plains: a long-term southwesterly jet aloft with multiple "shortwaves" of energy ejecting (each of which can produce enhanced tornado potential) and with good low-level moisture remaining in place for the duration of the pattern.
GFS 500mb pattern forecast for May 18
Even a muted version of this pattern would likely produce one or two trip-worthy events. For this reason, my confidence in a chase beginning sometime after Friday is unusually high for a system nearly a week out. Higher probabilities are precluded by the fact that there is still time for a catastrophic reversal in model forecasts. If, however, the models are correct about the long-term nature of this pattern, the result would be a unusually-lengthy chase akin to the ones I embarked on in 2004 and 2005, with possibly 5 or more big storm chase days in the mix.
To summarize: a severe weather-favorable pattern in the Great Plains looks to get into high gear soon and possibly stay that way for much of the last half of May!
The following table charts the probabilities for a Plains storm chase expedition taking place for the date ranges shown:
2019 Plains Storm Expeditions - Probabilities as of May 11
Web Site Design and Internet Marketing by CIS Internet
From Dan: Please Read
To my regular readers, I offer my apologies for this heavy-handed notice. Unfortunately it has become necessary, so please bear with me!
Please don't copy/upload this site's content to social media or other web sites. Those copies have been a critical problem for me, seriously harming this site and my photography/storm chasing operation by diverting traffic, viewers, engagement and income. "Credit" and "exposure" does not benefit this site or my operation, rather they threaten my ability to cover my operating expenses. Please read my full explanation for this notice here.
Before continuing, check each box to agree to and acknowledge these two statements:
Click this button to finalize this acknowledgement:
