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February 24 severe storm potential, part 1
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The first big convective storm event of the year is being advertised by models for this Thursday, the 24th. For the most part, this is a typical early-season setup: likely not much to get excited about, but one to watch if some unresolvable details can come to fruition that could help boost the risk as we get closer.
The primary two features of this setup (as with all big storm events) are 1.) a strongly-sheared upper atmosphere thanks to a powerful incoming upper trough, and 2.) underneath of these winds, a northward surge of low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. These two main ingredients of the setup are not really in question, but other important details are.
Since we are still several days away from this, there is not much else we can say with confidence about it. The models indicate that, as we'd expect, a surface low should spin up under the strong upper flow and move east/northeast on the northern edge of the moist sector. The low will drag a cold front eastward to its south, and maintain a warm front to its east/northeast. These boundaries, along with the low itself, will be the focus for thunderstorms. The questions that remain are 1.) how far north will the better moisture make it and where will this low track, 2.) will directional shear profiles allow storms to stay isolated or will they quickly form a linear squall line, and 3.) will cloud cover and pre-event precipitation keep the moist sector from destabilizing. Right now, the models have the surface low tracking through central/southern Missouri, which would keep most of the storms south of St. Louis.
Climatology and experience says that this type of setup should be a fast-moving squall line on its southern two-thirds, with lots of rain, isolated embedded thunder and generally cloud-socked in toward its middle section (slightly more lightning/heavy rain closer to the surface low track). Supporting this is data like the NAM/WRF forecast sounding for Poplar Bluff (above), which shows thick clouds in southeast Missouri by mid-afternoon (notice the temp/dewpoint lines together, indicating saturation=clouds). So in other words, we might expect some refreshing thunder and lightning, but not much of a chase setup. A snowstorm will be in store for the northern sections of this system, which right now is shown as being along and north of a line about 50 miles from Interstate 70.
What to watch for, as far as this being something notable for storm chasing, will be primarily if cloud cover and precip can be minimized ahead of the system. If any clearing and resultant boost in instability can be realized, particularly northward close to the surface low track, supercells and tornadoes will be possible. As such, this event is actually on my radar for a possible chase, only if it can realize some instability and keep tracking the low close to St. Louis. This is not a setup I would travel for. I probably will not look at or post more about this setup until the morning of the event, as the details about instability and the low track won't be realistically predictable until then. I'd say this event has a 10% chance of actually being chase-worthy, with the most likely outcome being the rain-logged squall line event as described above.
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