January 2026 Storm Chasing Recap

This snow squall moved through the Pittsburgh area right after the start of the new year, passing over Washington just before 1:00AM. This was the first time I've been in a snow squall warning, a new type of warning the National Weather Service started issuing a few years ago. Lightning was reported in several locations in the line, but no flashes happened over Washington. A few mesovortices were apparent on radar as the line approached. The precip type was a mix of graupel and snow, resulting in a quick 2 inches of accumulation on top of the 2-3 already on the ground from earlier in the evening (Radarscope screen grab included):

A potent negatively-tilted trough moved through the Midwest on this Thursday as strong southerly winds at the surface brought dewpoints into the 60s F to north of Interstate 70. With excellent shear in place with that kind of moisture, the stage was set for the first tornado risk of the year for the St. Louis metro area. The three major tempering factors were all-day cloud cover (meaning low instability), boundary-parallel flow (which favors linear convection instead of isolated cells) and the strongest activity occurring on the eastern edge of the better moisture, limiting the time storms would have to take advantage of the environment. Furthermore, everything would be after dark. With it being a backyard event though, it was worth going out for a couple of hours to watch.

I stayed on the Illinois side for this chase, first sending the drone up at Fairview Heights to watch a tail-end circulation wrapping up over Collinsville. I could not make out any storm structure with that, however. Next I headed up to Glen Carbon for another tail-end cell on a newly-developed line segment. This one had some visible organization, with an RFD clear slot nosing into the base and an inflow tail curving around to the east and south (Radarscope screen grab included):

Motion was weak in this feature as it raced away to the north. I intercepted one last tail-end cell at Marine that had no low-level organization. Storms to my southeast began intensifying as I neared home, but they were out of play thanks to their rapid speed - there was no way I'd get ahead of them at that point.

I did see the first lightning flashes of the year today, but no visible channels exited the clouds.

I had this weekend off, so I was originally planning to use it to go to southern Georgia for another deep South winter weather event. Meanwhile, models were hinting at some light snow in the St. Louis metro in the morning - but when I first checked radar after waking up, I was surprised to see heavy snow squalls had developed west of the metro. With temperatures in the low 20s, this meant trouble for St. Louis. Suprise winter precipitation like this means that the DOT crews will not be prepared. which often results in a high-impact road icing event similar to what happens in deep South winter storms.

I left home at 8:30am at headed to St. Charles, hitting the first snow squall at Earth City:

The snow was very dry and powdery, and interestingly was mostly being blown off of the highway by traffic. This kept most of the interstates passable. Ramps and side streets were another story - these quickly became treacherous. I ended up at Highway 40 (I-64) at Ballas Road where vehicles were sliding on the sharply-curving eastbound exit ramp. I captured this footage via drone:

Thankfully no one was hurt in that incident. I had to stop flying as another snow squall moved in, as there is a 3-mile visibility requirement for drone pilots (that I'm planning on but haven't yet got a waiver for). After this last squall moved away, the combination of the DOT crews finally arriving and the direct sunlight helping with melting was resulting in things clearing up fast. So, I was done shooting at 11am, a near-record for my shortest winter weather outing in St. Louis.

On my way home, I encountered "shade ice" on IL 161 under the I-64 overpass. This is something I've only seen in the South. With no road treatment in those areas - after a storm - the sun and the return of warming temperatures melts everything except shaded spots next to tree canopies, buildings and under bridges. These can have the same effect as an icy bridge, where drivers encounter these sudden icy patches among mostly-clear roads. This is the first time I've observed it in St. Louis, thanks to this surprise event resulting in little to no treatment of the roads.

Interestingly, the HRRR model did pick up on this potential the night before. This is the 24-hour LCR chart at 00z on Friday night depicting a high risk for impactful road icing in the metro:

As I mentioned in the previous entry, I was originally planning on heading down to either south-central Georgia or the Florida panhandle for the expected snow event on Sunday. With the piracy and infringement issue decimating my operating revenue, I have very limited funds for out-of-area trips. I can now only afford to do one or two of them per season. The St. Louis snow event made me late for my planned departure time for this trip, so I was running out of time. I needed to get some more sleep for what would be a long overnight drive, arriving just after the snow began down there. After a nap, I left home at 9pm, about 6 hours later than originally planned. I'd be arriving at sunrise, just after the snow was expected to begin.

I made my first data check stop at Marion. While models had come in a little colder and a little heavier on the snow amounts, the window for high road impacts in the heart of the storm appeared to be very short. Temps were only shown falling to 31°F, though I expected a few isolated spots might briefly reach critical icing temperatures (29°F) in the heavier snow. But those conditions would be short-lived, only 2 or 3 hours, maybe 4 - and the sun would be coming out around noon, spiking temperatures rapidly into the mid to upper 40s. With only 3 inches of accumulation tops, this would likely result in most of the snow on the roads melting by late afternoon. I've observed that happen down there before, with much more snow and much colder temperatures than this.

Furthermore, the bigger threat appeared to be Sunday night into Monday morning when temperatures well below critical would spill southward over the snow swath, refreezing anything still on the roads. But I felt that there was a good chance there would not be much snow left on roads after the midday melting took place. 2-3 inches of snow will melt very fast in those temperatures. A 3-4 hour window to shoot a winter storm is just too short to be practical, and I was already running behind and would lose at least an hour of that due to being late. I felt like the chances of not seeing enough significant impacts to capture any compelling footage was too high, so I turned around and headed back home. In a normal year, I'd have made the trip without question - but in these times of infringement and piracy, unfortunately I have to be very selective.

A magnitude 3.5 earthquake occured at 1:28AM near Taylorville, Illinois, about an hour's drive north of here, and was widely felt throughout the St. Louis metro area. A queit night at work was ideal for my experiencing the event. The building creaked, monitors visibly shook and the desk chair I was in was solid enough to clearly transmit the shaking for about 5 seconds. This broke my lifelong curse of missing felt earthquakes on solid ground. The only other one I experienced was in my car during a M4.5 Ridgecrest, California aftershock, with the car's suspension shaking but not really transmitting the true ground motion. In all other notable quakes, I was either driving or had just left the location days earlier. Nice to finally cross that off of the life experience list!

An M3.5 is typically on the low end of perceptible earthquakes, especially any distance away. But as of the time of this posting, the USGS DYFI (Did You Feel It) page has already received more than 1,100 reports, most from the St. Louis metro area. My report was estimated at III on the Modified Mercalli scale. The volume of reports is clearly biased toward St. Louis. I'm not sure if that is just because of the population center, or if the fault rupture orientation directed more of the energy to its south.

Even though I don't have anything visual captured from this, it's definitely an event that will be one of the highlights of my 2026!

LINK: USGS page on the event

After this much-hyped aurora event appeared to be a dud thanks to the earth's Bx (magnetic field) being north - coupled with the fact that it was 15°F outside - I didn't plan on going out for this potential northern lights bonanza. Nonetheless, after I got home from work, I saw the Twitter reports of a nice substorm in progress. I drove down to a viewing spot south of town to discover the sky was completely blocked horizon-to-horizon by thick clouds.