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                   Sunday, February 27, 2011 - 9:30PM CST

Sunday 2/27 severe storm event updates

By DAN ROBINSON
Editor/Photographer
25 Years of Storm Observing
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9:30PM CST Sunday, (Posted from New Baden, IL):
Back home after the main play of the day in southeast Missouri failed to pan out. Now just awaiting a pair of supercells from the west, but they have a long way to go to get here - and already show some signs of outflow undercutting issues. Hoping for at least some lightning photo opportunities - we've already seen our first strikes here today, so that's a start!

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2:34PM CST Sunday, (Posted from Benton, MO):
Parked a few miles south of Cape Girardeau, in waiting mode. I'm not too happy with the situation down here so far, namely because surface winds are still badly veered at 2:30PM - and aside from a differential heating boundary down south, not much of a focus for convection anywhere. My original target was well south of here, but I've held back to save fuel in case the daytime southern play advertised by the high-resolution models doesn't happen. In which case, I'll hold position here for a while to see how the action to the west and northwest evolves, before returning to St. Louis for the overnight phase of this system.

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4:04AM CST Sunday, (Posted from New Baden, IL):
Latest RUC model has storms firing on the warm front and moving through St. Louis sometime after noon today. These will be in a favorable environment for supercells should they develop, stay isolated and can remain rooted on the warm side of the front.

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12:03AM CST Sunday, (Posted from New Baden, IL):
An almost certain storm observation day is in store later this evening and into tonight as a surface low passes near St. Louis, with warm, moist air at the surface and powerful upper level winds above - all the makings of a potential outbreak of tornadoes. Currently, models point to the St. Louis metro area's primary threat being toward midnight, when one or more waves of strong storms - potentially supercells with tornadoes - pass either over or very near the city.

The public danger of this event will be elevated due to the storms arriving during the overnight period when everyone is normally asleep. Therefore, if you have a weather radio, today is a day to turn it on and leave it running into the night. You should also pay attention to local media for updates - leave a TV or radio running. It will be a good idea to have someone in your household stay up late to monitor the threat.

There is still much to be sorted out with the forecast for this event, and I will post a few updates later as the main event gets closer. When I go into 'chase mode' later, I'll likely put up the live video stream.

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