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                   Wednesday, May 15, 2013 - 3:58PM CST

Plains trip #2 a go, for now

By DAN ROBINSON
Editor/Photographer
25 Years of Storm Observing
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The models' maintenance and general agreement of worthy chase opportunities continues, now with at least three setups for potential tornadoes beginning on Saturday in Kansas/Oklahoma/Nebraska. The system should move east and bring each successive day's target area closer to home, with Monday and Tuesday possibly being local Midwest expedition days. The forecast incoming upper wave is more amplified than before, becoming negatively tilted for Sunday and Monday. The flow in the trough looks a little on the weak side for Saturday, but I think there will still be enough to warrant beginning the trip that day with morning departure from St. Louis. Sunday and Monday look like the bigger days, with targets potentially right back here in the Midwest. This could technically end up being a one-day Plains, two-to-three-day Midwest trip.

Lord willing and barring an unlikely last-minute model mega-bust, Plains trip #2 looks like a go starting early Saturday. Looking farther ahead (beyond Tuesday), an 'Omega' blocking pattern is shown setting up with troughs in the east and west and a ridge over the central US. Decent upper flow overtop of good instability is shown bringing a few possible expedition days in the extreme north (Montana and the Dakotas), but it looks like the rest of the Plains will shut down again for at least another week. The way it appears now, the next trip-worthy chase opportunities may not arrive until at least the end of the month.

The following table charts the probability of a Great Plains weather expedition for the indicated date ranges:

2013 Plains Storm Expeditions - Probabilities as of May 15
May 15-171%
May 18-2095%
May 21-2510%

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The following comments were posted before this site switched to a new comment system on August 27, 2016:

Looking good Dan for the 18th - 20th will again keep a close eye on your Blog !!! Hope it happens mate ! Mick
- Posted by Mick from UK
Thanks Mick!
- Posted by Dan R. from New Baden, IL

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