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Storm chasing forecast update 15, for June 4
Yesterday's system - the sole setup that could have prompted another Great Plains trip - turned out to be mostly a dud. There were a few tornadoes here and there, but the storms were messy (as expected) and I haven't yet seen anything that I regret missing. I had the car packed for a Midwest chase either west or north of St. Louis, but that was also a no-go as the event's potential fell apart as the day progressed.
Looking ahead, I see much of the same: an active pattern for storms, but nothing standing out as trip-worthy in the Great Plains. There is also not even much of note here at home in the Midwest, other than maybe a couple of backyard lightning opportunities here and there. This is thanks to an upper pattern that hasn't been able to reset itself into a classic western troughing regime, one that would promote robust/sustained moisture return northward into the central and northern Plains. Instead, we're seeing a devolution into eastern troughing/Hudson Bay vortex and northwest flow over the Plains, with a few paltry shortwaves trying to nose in to the southwest of that.
GFS 500mb forecast for Monday evening, June 9
Again, this is a pattern that nonetheless still has the basics for severe storms: moisture and upper support (faster winds aloft), so it's not going to be a dead pattern by any means. And it's possible for some isolated big tornadoes to happen where localized ideal conditions can come together. It's just that those two basic ingredients will likely continue to have trouble overlapping in the synergistic way that bigger tornado events need. The result is there is nothing showing in the medium ranges that would be worth a Plains expedition (by my criteria). As a result, my expectations for a third Plains trip in the coming 2 weeks will remain low.
The following table charts the probabilities for a Plains storm chase expedition taking place for the date ranges shown:
| 2025 Plains Chase Expeditions - Probabilities as of June 4 |
| June 5-10 | 5% | |
| June 10-15 | 30% | |
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