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Storm chasing forecast update 4, for March 24
It's been a long time since I've seen such an active March! This month has already been one for the books, with the outbreak on the 14th and 15th placing 11th in United States history for total number of tornadoes. As the "March of Troughs" continues, models indicate a seemingly-endless series of severe weather episodes every couple of days. This is shown continuing mostly in the southern US, with some potential events having components in both the Plains and Midwest regions. The next big wave is shown bringing a two-day tornado/supercell risk across the Plains on Saturday into the Midwest and South on Sunday:
GFS 500mb forecast for Sunday evening, March 30
The two main things I look at for severe weather potential in the medium-to-long ranges are the 500mb wind charts (like the above) that show the upper jet configuration, and the surface dewpoint charts that show how much low-level moisture is making its way north underneath of that upper-level flow. Right now, Saturday in the Great Plains and Sunday in the Midwest are both shown having adequate moisture under the favorable upper support. As with any system coming through, the details that can make or break tornado/supercell potential (like cloud cover and the evolution of previous-day thunderstorms) are yet to be worked out. As currently indicated, I'm at 40 percent on a Plains expedition for Saturday, then Sunday looks like another no-brainer home area chase day. Details and placement of those will change to some degree win the next few days.
Beyond this weekend, models agree on upper level flow remaining over the central USA in favorable form for severe storms, with continued shortwaves making their way across the country overtop of sufficient moisture. All of that means the active pattern will continue for the foreseeable future, with chances for both Plains and Midwest chase days in the mix.
The following table charts the probabilities for a Plains storm chase expedition taking place for the date ranges shown:
| 2025 Plains Chase Expeditions - Probabilities as of March 24 |
| March 25-27 | 0% | |
| March 28-30 | 40% | |
| March 31-April 4 | 30% | |
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