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Storm chasing forecast update 12, for May 14
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Making one more update before this next active period arrives. Models have backed off of the Midwest components of the potent Plains tornado setups shown from Saturday-Monday. This means that Lord willing, Plains trip #2 will likely begin either Friday night or Saturday barring any other drastic changes to the forecast. Sunday and Monday are no-brainer, classic Great Plains setups of the type that have always prompted trips in the past: shortwave trough ejections bringing excellent shear/instability overlaps, with models showing storm initiation on the dryline from Kansas into Oklahoma. Although there are always failure scenarios for any setup that are hard to resolve, these nonetheless have the look of potential tornado outbreaks that you don't want to miss if you're a chaser.
GFS 500mb forecast for Monday evening, May 19
Prior to this, we have two days of Midwest tornado setups that themselves look quite potent. Stay tuned to this blog and my Twitter feed for the latest on trip catches (if any)!
The following table charts the probabilities for a Plains storm chase expedition taking place for the date ranges shown:
| 2025 Plains Chase Expeditions - Probabilities as of May 14 |
| May 14-16 | 0% | |
| May 17-21 | 90% | |
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