Storm Highway by Dan Robinson
Weather, photography and the open roadClick for an important message
Home | Blog Index | Blog Archives | Christianity & Faith Essays

                   Monday, May 28, 2007 - 3:14AM

WV thunderstorm forecast for Memorial Day

By DAN ROBINSON
Editor/Photographer
25 Years of Storm Observing
Important Message
Dan's RSS/XML feed
Dan's YouTube Video Channel

The bulk of West Virginia has been relatively rain and storm-starved for nearly two weeks now, aside from the brief popup showers and storms occuring mainly over the mountains. Memorial Day should bring a higher chance of organized thunderstorms to the region by late afternoon, but not by much.

Moisture at the surface is plentiful today, with dewpoints in the mid-60s creating a mugginess that can be felt in the air. However, a quick check of the models reveals the support of strong upper-level winds remaning well to the north of us today. This means that convection that manages to fire on the slow-moving and weakening cold front will have difficulty becoming strong and widespread. The RUC model (a short-term model) is the most optimistic for firing storms, with the concentration centered in the Parkersburg-Clarksburg-Wheeling-Morgantown areas in northwestern West Virginia. The GFS and WRF are not as agressive in indicating storms, aside from some weak showers and/or short-lived storms firing north of Parkersburg. I think that despite the presence of the front, most of the state - particularly south of Parkersburg and west of the mountains - will have a hard time seeing even a drop of rain from this setup. The SPC does have most of the state outlooked in a small hail risk area for today, with a greater risk in central and eastern Virginia.

As far as today being an expedition day, I think the probabilities are too low to venture out onto the road and burn gas money. I will likely stick close to home and wait for the off-chance of development within a 30 mile radius of Charleston. If a strong line of thunderstorms begins pushing south toward the Ripley area as the RUC model suggests, then I may head up I-77 to see what type of photo opportunities it offers.

25 Years of Storm Observing
Important Message
Dan's RSS/XML feed
Dan's YouTube Video Channel

This web site is made possible by support from CIS Internet.
CIS Results-Oriented Internet Marketing

GO: Home | Weather Observing | Photography | Extreme Weather Library | Stock Footage | Blog

Featured Weather Library Article:

How lightning works
Does it go up or down? A detailed description of lightning from start to finish.
More Library Articles

All content © Dan Robinson. All usage requires a paid license - please contact Dan for inquiries.

Web Site Design and Internet Marketing by CIS Internet