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                   Monday, April 16, 2012 - 10:18PM CST

Video from 4/13; more shots from 4/14; extended outlook

By DAN ROBINSON
Editor/Photographer
25 Years of Storm Observing
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Between catching up with work/errands today, I haven't had a lot of time to work on imagery and video from Plains trip #1. However, I did manage to get the dashcam video from the tornado encounter on Friday the 13th in Cooperton, Oklahoma edited. This is video from the front/rear dashcams and my camcorder synced up into one HD clip:

HD VIDEO: Caught in the edge of a tornado, Cooperton, OK - April 13, 2012 - 3 camera views

I also went through the April 14 Ingersoll, OK tornado video to pull out some still captures. This was tornado #4 for me this day:

Outlook for upcoming weather expeditions

Both the GFS and the Euro models are not showing any favorable upper air patterns for tornadoes through the 7 to 10 day range. Instead, a deep eastern trough and western ridge are shown persisting for a week or more, a pattern that will temper surface moisture in the central US and attendant severe weather chances. While several rounds of thunderstorms can be expected from time to time, at this stage, no good tornado pattern is shown for as far out as the models can reasonably be trusted. Additionally, in the realm of non-weather factors, my finances will need a paycheck or two to recover before another trip can be made. So, the probabilities for weather expeditions happening in the near term are very low. Past April 30, there is no way to know whether a favorable pattern will exist that far out, so the probabilities for any one of those dates are also relatively low. However, since (based on climatology) it is likely that another good pattern will occur after a couple of weeks, those date brackets deserve slightly higher weather expedition probabilities.

This table shows the probabilites of an expedition happening in a particular date range:

2012 Storm Expeditions - Probabilities as of April 16
April 16-220%
April 23-302%
May 1-820%
May 9-1525%

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The following comments were posted before this site switched to a new comment system on August 27, 2016:

I think you're good for the rest of the year lol.
- Posted by p from d
Yeah I'm going to have a hard time complaining about anything for a while!
- Posted by Dan R. from New Baden, IL

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