Storm Highway by Dan Robinson
Weather, photography and the open roadClick for an important message
Home | Blog Index | Blog Archives | Christianity & Faith Essays

                   Wednesday, May 9, 2012 - 7:34AM CST

Chase forecast update for May 10-20

By DAN ROBINSON
Editor/Photographer
25 Years of Storm Observing
Important Message
Dan's RSS/XML feed
Dan's YouTube Video Channel

Unfortunately, long-range models continue to show no sign of good observing patterns over the Plains/Midwest for as far out as they can reasonably be useful (10 days in the case of the ECMWF). A western trough showing up at the far end of the range appears to be too far north to do much for the Plains in terms of upper flow, except for possibly Montana and North Dakota. At the same time, a weak upper low/trough shown in the east blocks deep moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico, which would keep moisture from flowing that *long* distance north it would need to interact with that upper support (if it materializes).

Worse, the pattern shows no sign of breaking down for what could end up being the bulk of the month of May. Which is to say, there are no signs of progressiveness, but rather a indefinite period of ridging and stagnation of the upper pattern. As a result of this, deep moisture should remain too meager across the entire continental US for even weak-shear thunderstorm days.

All told, weather expeditioning prospects in the Plains and Midwest look grim for at least the next 2 weeks. The good news is, that rarely lasts, and we should start seeing some improvement in the pattern (or at least some hope on model forecasts) by the last week of the month. In the meantime, we're looking at some downtime for a while.

The following table plots the chance of a Plains weather expedition happening in a particular date range (Midwestern expedition days are not factored into this table):

2012 Plains Storm Expeditions - Probabilities as of May 9
May 9-150%
May 16-2110%
May 22-3130%

Post a Comment
Please note that IP addresses are logged. Abuse will be reported to ISPs or corporate network management

The following comments were posted before this site switched to a new comment system on August 27, 2016:

25 Years of Storm Observing
Important Message
Dan's RSS/XML feed
Dan's YouTube Video Channel

This web site is made possible by support from CIS Internet.
CIS Results-Oriented Internet Marketing

GO: Home | Weather Observing | Photography | Extreme Weather Library | Stock Footage | Blog

Featured Weather Library Article:

How lightning works
Does it go up or down? A detailed description of lightning from start to finish.
More Library Articles

All content © Dan Robinson. All usage requires a paid license - please contact Dan for inquiries.

Web Site Design and Internet Marketing by CIS Internet