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                   Thursday, February 24, 2011 - 2:43PM CST

Thursday 2/24 thunderstorm event updates

By DAN ROBINSON
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Posted 2:43PM CST Thursday, (Posted from New Baden, IL):
Looking like a non-event on all counts today. It feels great to have a productive workday instead of driving around in the grungefest in Arkansas. Latest model guidance seems to suggest a slightly farther south low track, which means we may see a couple of inches of snow later tonight. We've been on the cold side of the warm front all day, and temps are not looking like they will get too far about 40°F - easy for the cold air that's coming to knock us down below freezing. The lightning prospects are dwindling, which is OK by me - it's been a busy workday that doesn't seem to want to end. I'm just hoping now that any thunder holds off until after dark.

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Posted 9:10AM CST Thursday, (Posted from New Baden, IL):
A tiny area of clearing is moving through central Missouri at the moment, but is too small and too early to make much of a difference in boosting our local instability. Radar trends have me slightly more optimistic about seeing our first thunderstorms of the season here today, which should arrive sometime after noon. Still nothing worthy of an expedition outside of a mile or two of town.

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Posted 12:09AM CST Thursday, (Posted from New Baden, IL):
By all indications, this setup will be at best a local lightning event, possibly starting before sunrise. As the upper support overspreads the area, one or more rounds of thunderstorms should continue to increase in coverage over much of the lower Midwest. Any tornado threat should remain well to our south into Arkansas, much too far to consider a long-distance chase.

With most of the action around St. Louis likely to be rain showers with little lightning, I'm planning on staying home today, and simply using the flat Plains-like landscape around town to observe any storms that manage to make it this far north. I am not expecting much from this system here. I may put up a live stream at some point if there happens to be anything interesting, so stay tuned to the feeds if you're interested.

Sunday is looking like a solid Midwestern expedition day with a tornado threat in or close to St. Louis. More to come on that as the day gets closer.

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