Storm Highway by Dan Robinson
Weather, photography and the open roadClick for an important message
Home | Blog Index | Blog Archives | Christianity & Faith Essays

                   Tuesday, April 8, 2008 - 4:44AM

Chase possible Thursday

25 Years of Storm Observing
Important Message
Dan's RSS/XML feed
Dan's YouTube Video Channel

The models remain in agreement about a major upper trough slamming a good portion of the USA this week. And since we're in the warming spring season, along with the trough comes the attendant risk of severe weather along its leading side. The spring severe weather season has truly arrived, as two days of significant tornado outbreaks appear likely on Wednesday and Thursday. The risk will start in the Plains and move into the Mississippi and Ohio Valley regions. The SPC's Day 3 outlook for Thursday sets the tone of the expected magnitude of the event, as a moderate risk is rare sight on a Day 3:

SPC severe weather risk category (left) and threat probabilities (right) for Thursday

On Friday, the monster trough plows eastward, bringing severe storms to the Appalachians and eastern US.

I'll post more on this situation in the coming days as subsequent model runs come out. Thursday's setup is a borderline 'home chase area' event for me, in other words one that I may be able to get to and back in a single day. While the large-scale pattern is pretty much nailed down, the exact positioning of the forecasted outbreak will likely shift around as we get closer to Thursday. While the setup as it is currently depicted is too far away for me, a shift of the risk area to the east or north (into Illinois or Kentucky) will make an expedition more likely.

Post a Comment
Please note that IP addresses are logged. Abuse will be reported to ISPs or corporate network management

The following comments were posted before this site switched to a new comment system on August 27, 2016:

25 Years of Storm Observing
Important Message
Dan's RSS/XML feed
Dan's YouTube Video Channel

This web site is made possible by support from CIS Internet.
CIS Results-Oriented Internet Marketing

GO: Home | Weather Observing | Photography | Extreme Weather Library | Stock Footage | Blog

Featured Weather Library Article:

Lightning FAQ
Everything you ever wanted to know about lightning!
More Library Articles

All content © Dan Robinson. All usage requires a paid license - please contact Dan for inquiries.

Web Site Design and Internet Marketing by CIS Internet