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                   Tuesday, April 8, 2008 - 4:44AM

Chase possible Thursday

By DAN ROBINSON
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25 Years of Storm Observing
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The models remain in agreement about a major upper trough slamming a good portion of the USA this week. And since we're in the warming spring season, along with the trough comes the attendant risk of severe weather along its leading side. The spring severe weather season has truly arrived, as two days of significant tornado outbreaks appear likely on Wednesday and Thursday. The risk will start in the Plains and move into the Mississippi and Ohio Valley regions. The SPC's Day 3 outlook for Thursday sets the tone of the expected magnitude of the event, as a moderate risk is rare sight on a Day 3:


SPC severe weather risk category (left) and threat probabilities (right) for Thursday

On Friday, the monster trough plows eastward, bringing severe storms to the Appalachians and eastern US.

I'll post more on this situation in the coming days as subsequent model runs come out. Thursday's setup is a borderline 'home chase area' event for me, in other words one that I may be able to get to and back in a single day. While the large-scale pattern is pretty much nailed down, the exact positioning of the forecasted outbreak will likely shift around as we get closer to Thursday. While the setup as it is currently depicted is too far away for me, a shift of the risk area to the east or north (into Illinois or Kentucky) will make an expedition more likely.

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