Storm Highway by Dan Robinson
Weather, photography and the open roadClick for an important message
Sunday, June 3, 2007 - 3:00AM EDT

We're back!

By DAN ROBINSON
Editor/Photographer
25 Years of Storm Observing
Important Message
Dan's RSS/XML feed
Dan's YouTube Video Channel

The GFS models paint the picture of a classic strong, wide-area tornado outbreak from Texas to Nebraska on Wednesday if it comes close to actually happening as shown. Thursday and Friday look like potent setups as well. This is one of those 'too good to say no' setups that has breathed at least one last breath into the hopes for our 2007 Weather Expedition.

The main negative right now, and it is a big one, is the cap. The cap is a layer of warm air above the surface that prevents the buoyant warm, moist air below from rising to create thunderstorms. Normally, a strong cap is a good thing as it keeps storms from becoming too numerous too early. Too many storms will rob each other's needed balance to become fully organized, and a strong cap will keep storms more isolated. However, too strong of a cap can mean no storms at all, and this appears to be a likely case for Wednesday. The cap is usually forecast using the temperature plot at the 700mb layer.

A cap of 10 degrees C is considered a strong but breakable cap, but 12C and above is considered harder to break. The precip forecast for Wednesday confirms this concern, with only light precip returns plotted in the extreme northern section of the highest risk area.

In a nutshell, Wednesday looks like a classic tornado day in northern Kansas and Nebraska that would be well worth making a trip for - in the event that one or two supercells can break through the cap. If the cap remains as strong or stronger than forecast, then we may just sit this one out. If the trip is a go, we would need to leave early on Tuesday, with a likely return on Saturday or Sunday.

Non-weather factors will play a major role in this trip being a reality. Two out of our four-man crew will likely not be able to make a trip this week, so that will be an issue we'll have to address - especially with fuel costs so high. Secondly, my home central air conditioner's compressor died today - which may be a financial death blow to any more observing trips. I will probably have an estimate on repairs by Monday.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Weather Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of June 3
June 5-1050%
No trip50%

25 Years of Storm Observing
Important Message
Dan's RSS/XML feed
Dan's YouTube Video Channel

This web site is made possible by support from CIS Internet.
CIS Results-Oriented Internet Marketing

GO: Home | Storm Expeditions | Photography | Extreme Weather Library | Stock Footage | Blog

Featured Weather Library Article:

Lightning & towers, skyscrapers
See how lightning really does strike the same place twice!
More Library Articles

All content © Dan Robinson. All usage requires a paid license - please contact Dan for inquiries.

Web Site Design and Internet Marketing by CIS Internet