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                   Wednesday, March 11, 2009 - 2:29PM

Winter stages a sudden rally

By DAN ROBINSON
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25 Years of Storm Observing
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How do you get it to snow? Make a post like my last one! We already know who's going to win this game next month, but now winter's got a man on second base with no outs in the 5th. Earlier, the models had a few mornings late this week getting below freezing, but without any precipitation to be seen. Now, that has suddenly changed, with a system shown passing to our south on Thursday night-Friday morning. Snowfall estimates for the mountains range from 2 to 4 inches by Friday morning. There will be a sharp cutoff to the northern edge of the snow, meaning that Charleston may not see anything out of this despite what happens to the south. The track is the key - if it moves too far to the north, winter's going to score some points here in Charleston. Whatever happens will be short-lived, as our daytime highs will be in the 40s - anything that sticks overnight won't last once the sun comes up. Here is the NAM precip graphic for Friday morning - all of that should be snow over the Appalachians, with surface temps right at or below freezing.

The good news is that the long-range forecast continues to maintain its earlier trends, even showing slightly warmer conditions than before. No below-freezing periods that could give snow a chance to come back are shown for at least roughly 2 more weeks. So, if we can just make it through Friday, the 'winter may be over' forecast will be back in play.

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