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Chase forecast update for June 1-11
Here we go again. Models have started to indicate increasing midlevel flow for the trough moving into the Plains this weekend, with a more robust swath of 40 knot winds at 500mb. As is typical this time of year, moisture/instability should not be a problem. Capping is also becoming less of a concern, with models agreeing on storm development. This has all started to make the potential setups much more favorable for tornadoes for quite an extended stretch, from Sunday through Friday of this upcoming week. So much so that I'm rearranging my schedule to prepare for the possibility of Plains trip #3 beginning late Saturday and possibly lasting for the entire 7-day period following.
It appears right now that the probability for at least one or two good expedition days during this 7-day period are quite high. So, even though there is always the chance that one or more of the days may 'tank', I am unusually confident in trip #3 being a "go".
The following table charts the probability of a Great Plains weather expedition happening for several indicated date ranges in the near future:
|2014 Plains Storm Expeditions - Probabilities as of May 30|
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