Chase forecast update for March 10
Let's take a quick look at the upcoming weather model forecasts on this Sunday evening. The bad news: no chaseable setups are shown on the horizon. We do have this strong trough plowing across the continental US during the middle of next week:
NAM 500mb pattern forecast for March 13
Instability on the warm side of this system is shown as being meager, so much so that it's not even looking that good for lightning in the Midwest, much less any chaseable severe weather. Though this could improve in the coming days, the Euro and GFS (and now the NAM) are in pretty good agreement.
The good news is that there is no winter weather of any consequence showing up within the 7 to 10 day period. In fact, models only have us dropping below freezing on two nights late next week. The period is shown as being rather mild - not quite t-shirt and shorts weather, but no coat and gloves conditions either! It's a nice break from what we've been seeing, and a sign that we're moving right along on that highway toward the heart of chase season.
In some other news, this week I made a big equipment addition to the toolbox that I'm very excited about. Stay tuned to the blog and the Youtube channel!
The following table charts the probabilities for a Plains chase expedition taking place for the date ranges shown:
|2019 Plains Chase Expeditions - Probabilities as of March 10|