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June 1 storm forecast
I've said it many times that lightning is more important to me than tornadoes - and today is one of those days I'm going to 'walk the talk'. Despite a pretty nice setup for tornadoes this afternoon back toward the Kansas/Nebraska/Iowa/Missouri quad-state area - close enough for me to easily chase - I'm instead choosing to focus on lightning-related chase goals with the multiple MCSs (mesoscale convective complexes, or in layman's terms, big masses of long-lived thunderstorms) expected to lumber through the region during the next 48-72 hours.
The first round should arrive here in St. Louis late this afternoon, after which I will likely head north/northwest to catch the mega-complex and associated lightning-fest that should be plowing across northern Missouri overnight. I also have my eyes on Chicago if the overnight MCS makes sufficient eastward progress - though all models don't have the main storms arriving there until well after sunrise tomorrow. The 4KM WRF model wants to develop a strong cold pool with the big overnight complex in northern Missouri, sending it surging southward through St. Louis before sunrise as a rather powerful-looking bow echo. While that model is the outlier today, it's something I'm keeping an eye on. The action should continue through tomorrow, with the timing and placement of storms highly dependent on what happens with today's events.
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