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Forecast update for Wednesday
Just a quick update to comment on the 00z model runs that just came out regarding tomorrow's severe weather potential. Nothing much has changed from this morning's runs, except maybe nudging the track of the low a little farther west. Timing of the bulk of the precip looks favorable for stronger storms, in the afternoon when temps should be at their max. The item of concern continues to be sun-robbing clouds and precipitation - and looking at the radar, the large precip shield is really not moving northward all that much now. I'll have to wait until morning to see where the rain and clouds are and where they're moving. Cloud cover is the key tomorrow - and I expect the SPC's placement of the probable 'slight' risk will be dependent on how far north clear skies can make it. Any substantial clearing between Morehead, KY and here will mean West Virginia should be well inside a slight risk for hail/wind, and will be enough for me to pull the trigger on a local-arean expedition.
I'm hoping I'll be up to getting out tomorrow, as I'm trying to fight off a case of the flu that I started with earlier today (slight fever and muscle aches). I've been known to still chase when I'm sick though, so if things look good enough in the morning I'll probably head out regardless.
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