Storm Highway by Dan Robinson
Weather, photography and the open roadClick for an important message

May 13: Forecast update - Hints of a better pattern; podcast announcement

You've probably noticed that our blog is being updated more frequently this year, namely every day with forecast-related posts. We're doing this so you can see what storm observers go through in typical storm observing expedition planning every season - the ups and the downs, excitement, disappointment, and anxiety that we deal with in the weeks before and during the month of May, even before we leave. We change departure dates daily at the models' whims once or twice a day. Although we all have flexible schedules, it's still a feat to plan for everyone getting together from different parts of the country on such a haphazard basis.

So on to today's long-term outlook. Models are beginning to pick up a western trough and bring it into the Plains during the last week of May. Given the inconsistency of the model forecasts recently and due to the fact that we are still talking about weather systems more than a week away, we are approaching this with cautious optimism. But, yesterday evening's model output and this morning's both looked encouraging, which was enough to ease our anxiety a bit.

Event Trip Podcast: On the departure day of our trip, we'll be starting a 'from the road' audio/video update for this season's blog, possibly in a podcast form. You'll get to meet our team members and hear what our thoughts are on current and upcoming storm observation days. Stay tuned!

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2006 Weather Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 13
May 13-160%
May 17-203%
May 21-2756%
May 28-June 439%
No trip2%

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