May 14: Forecast update - Yet another model downturn
8:53AM EDT: The latest model runs have backed off on the likelihood of severe weather in the Plains returning after late next week. The western trough is still there, but is forecast to still be out to sea in the Pacific and not move much, if at all, through the end of the month. When the models have widely varying forecasts like this each time they are run, they are said to be inconsistent and therefore highly unreliable. We are looking for some consistent result to show up that will give us some idea of what to expect. For now though, it's a total toss-up. All we can do is wait a few more days for a series of model forecasts to come out. New model runs will be out sometime after noon today.
Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:
|2006 Storm Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 14|
|May 28-June 4||39%|
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