May 17: Forecast & vehicle update - More good news
It appears we may finally be coming out of the dismal pattern currently entrenched in the Plains. Models are showing a significant pattern change starting this weekend that will break down the 'Omega Block' of troughs in the east and far west and a ridge over 'Tornado Alley'. Indications are that chaseable severe weather could return to the northern Plains by Tuesday. Models are still in varying states of disagreement about the pattern beyond late next week, but are trending toward the tornado-friendly western trough and southwest midlevel flow approaching the Plains.
So, as a result, we finally have a solid departure date to look forward to. Lord willing and barring a sudden and dramatic change in the forecasts, we will be on the road Sunday or early Monday.
Vehicle update: The Oregon Scientific weather station and additional LCD monitor arrived yesterday, and we have the mounts complete and most of the install finished. Stay tuned for photos!
Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:
|2006 Weather Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 17|
|May 28-June 4||14%|
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