May 9: Forecast update - Long-term Plains shutdown
The trough that the models have indicated might anchor over the eastern USA is now forecast to last for two weeks or more, keeping most severe storms out of the Great Plains for the bulk of May. A similar pattern was seen during the 2005 season, where supercells and tornadoes did not start returning until after the first of June. The window for this year's trip ends around June 10, and if this forecast trend continues, it's possible we might once again actually be observing at the tail end of our annual 'standby' period.
Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:
|2006 Weather Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 9|
|May 28-June 4||41%|
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