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Friday 4/30 Midwest storm observation day updates
Update 7:30AM Friday, (Posted via Office from New Baden, IL):
The latest short-term RUC model has storms breaking out early, with a CAPE max and coincident convection around St. Louis/southern IL by evening. This corresponds well with what other models were hinting at last night. If this holds true, storms in this area will be farther removed from the strongest upper support - but even so, they will still be in a region of 40-50 knots of flow at 500mb - more than sufficient. 850s are veered areawide, but the surface should be ranging from due south to slightly backed, enough to provide low-level shear for supercells.
So pending further data, target is right here at home.* * * * *
Update 12:17AM Friday, (Posted via Office from New Baden, IL):* * * * *
The 00z models (NAM, GFS, 4KM WRF) don't paint a terribly clear picture of what to expect tomorrow. It's clear that a northern bias will be needed due to fast NE storm motions. A starting point in southern Iowa early in the day may be in the cards - but this will again be a day where morning data will play an important role in positioning.
Update 6:30PM Thursday, (Posted via Office from New Baden, IL):
Shifting out of Plains trip mode for a while, as two or three days of observing close to home around the lower Midwest look to be shaping up starting tomorrow in central Missouri/Iowa. The threat moves into southeast Missouri/southern Illinois on Saturday, then possibly back into the St. Louis area one or two days thereafter as 'cold core' setups. Each day should be close enough to start and end the expeditions here at home.
I'm not ready to choose a target for Friday just yet, as the details are still yet to be worked out. I might have some better ideas later tonight after the 00z model runs.* * * * *