May 19: Forecast update
Still holding to the Sunday night/Monday morning departure, due to the distinct possibility of Tuesday being an storm observation day somewhere between northern Kansas and North Dakota, with other storm prospects likely following later in the week. So, we won't make any changes to our departure date probability table today. The question now remains of how good of an storm observation day Tuesday will be, and how many opportunities we'll have after that. The latest model runs have toned down the severe weather 'ingredients' forecast to move over the northern Plains next week. If this is true, the difficulty of a successful storm intercept will be greater, but not enough for us to postpone our trip at this point. Not surprisingly, the longer-range model forecasts for the period through Memorial Day weekend and beyond remain highly inconsistent.
Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:
|2006 Weather Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 19|
|May 28-June 4||4%|
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