|
Home | Blog Index | Blog Archives | Christianity & Faith Essays | Storm Chasing Essays
Storm Chasing & Photography 'microclimatology' tornado stats; Midwest chase probabilities
When it comes to storm chasing and tornadoes, I'm a stats/numbers type, simply because I think the data is interesting to look at (particularly now that we're in such a boring pattern this May). 2012 has been a remarkable year for me personally in terms of the huge shift in total tornadoes by state. Kansas has always been my top tornado state by a long shot, with well over half of all of my tornadoes there through 2008. However, in just three seasons, Oklahoma has nearly caught up to Kansas in terms of all-time tornado intercepts. This is thanks to my being in the middle of a 4-year Kansas tornado shutout, while Oklahoma has gone crazy with tornado intercepts (14 in the past 3 years, 10 this year alone!).
Month-wise, May has always been my top tornado month, with June coming in second. However, April is also catching up in that respect, now tied with June for the #2 spot.
Here are some stats:
- From 2004 to 2008, 26 of the 45 tornadoes I saw (58%) were in Kansas.
- From 2004 to 2012, 21 of the 63 tornadoes I saw (33%) were in Oklahoma.
- From 2010 to 2012, 14 of the 18 tornadoes I saw (78%) were in Oklahoma.
State-by-state tornado intercept data breakdowns for three time periods:
| 2004-2012 Tornadoes: 63
|
| State
| Tornadoes
| Percentage
|
| Kansas | 26 | 41% |
| Oklahoma | 21 | 33% |
| Texas | 8 | 17% |
| Illinois | 3 | 5% |
| Nebraska | 1 | 2% |
| Missouri | 1 | 2% |
| Iowa | 1 | 2% |
| South Dakota | 1 | 2% |
| Colorado | 1 | 2% |
| 2010-2012 Tornadoes: 18
|
| State
| Tornadoes
| Percentage
|
| Oklahoma | 14 | 78% |
| Illinois | 2 | 11% |
| Missouri | 1 | 6% |
| Texas | 1 | 6% |
|
| 2004-2008 Tornadoes: 45
|
| State
| Tornadoes
| Percentage
|
| Kansas | 26 | 58% |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 16% |
| Texas | 7 | 16% |
| Illinois | 1 | 2% |
| Nebraska | 1 | 2% |
| Iowa | 1 | 2% |
| South Dakota | 1 | 2% |
| Colorado | 1 | 2% |
Percentages by month:
| 2004-2012 Tornadoes: 63
|
| Month
| Tornadoes
| Percentage
|
| May | 28 | 44% |
| April | 17 | 27% |
| June | 17 | 27% |
| September | 1 | 2% |
|
New Midwest forecast chase probabilities/discussion
I also decided I'd try out adding a new feature to the end of each blog post
outlining the probabilities of a Midwest/local storm chasing (within 5 hours or so
of St. Louis). My definition of a 'chase' is one that involves deep
convection (thunderstorms), which includes lightning, hail, tornadoes
and thunderstorm-generated winds. In other words, subjects like dust
devils, auroras, sunsets and other photography outings are not
considered a true 'chase'.
The idea here is similar to the Plains
chase probability table, only focused more on the short range. The
Midwestern chase probability table will remain a year-round feature,
as storm chase days can happen here during any month or season. The
forecast discussion following the table may or may not be a regular
feature, but I'll include it as much as I can.
| Midwest Event Probabilities: The following table outlines the probabilities of a Lower Midwest chase (within 5 hours of St. Louis) happening within a particular time frame:
| 2012 Midwest Chases - Probabilities beginning May 14 |
| May 14-15 | 2% | |
| May 16 | 40% | |
| May 17-19 | 10% | |
|
Midwestern storm forecast discussion (Update based on 5/14 00z data): As with the Plains, the lower Midwest should remain mostly quiet for the next week. Low-level moisture slowly improves each day, bringing a very slight chance for isolated thunderstorms each afternoon. However, the lack of mid and upper level flow and the absence of strong surface boundaries will make for very slim storm chances through Tuesday. On Wednesday, a slow-moving (and eventually stalling) cold front could provide some marginally-organized storms somewhere in the region. However, models indicate that these storms should be too marginal to warrant a chase if they occur outside of the immediate St. Louis area. Should this activity end up affecting the St. Louis metro area, a local lightning chase after dark is possible Wednesday night. After Wednesday, models show no sign of organized storms in the region that could trigger a chase. |
|
|
