Storm Highway by Dan Robinson
Weather, photography and the open roadClick for an important message
Storm Highway by Dan RobinsonClick for an important message
Home | Blog Index | Blog Archives | Christianity & Faith Essays | Storm Chasing Essays

                   Wednesday, April 21, 2010 - 11:25AM CDT

Forecast update III for April 22-24

Important Message 30 Years of Storm Chasing & Photography Dan's YouTube Video Channel Dan's Twitter feed Dan's RSS/XML feed

2010 Storm Expeditions - Probabilities as of April 21
April 21-2499%
April 25-3055%
May 1-550%

Update 11:25AM CDT Tuesday: 12z NAM continues to not show any real reason to not chase tomorrow and Friday. So, the trip is a go, barring unforseen cirumstances. My only concern about Friday is that the warm front here at home in eastern MO/SW IL may be a viable play for tornadoes, so much so that I might have to make a marathon drive back here after Thursday's chase (I hate to miss potential tornado events close to home, even if something better is elsewhere). Oklahoma also looks good on Friday, so if it keeps that way I might stay out. A drive to Memphis on Saturday may be in the cards also.

Update 9:53PM CDT Tuesday: The 00z NAM hasn't changed things much. This is looking more like a go - initiation won't be an issue (there will be storms), and enough ingredients are in place to make for a decent tornado threat. Still a lot of time for changes, but looks like the venerable old chaser convergence town of Shamrock, TX (I-40 near TX/OK border) may be the tentative starting point on Thursday morning. Unless the 12z models go haywire tomorrow, I'll probably head west by mid-afternoon.

Update 2:27PM CDT Tuesday: The 12z NAM, GFS and Euro models are in good agreement in maintaining the parameters on the dryline for Thursday in terms of upper support, low-level wind fields (850mb to surface), moisture, and convective inititation. As a result, I've increased the Plains trip probabilities for this week to 75%. The plan, Lord willing, is to leave after the 00z model runs Wednesday evening, with a stopover somewhere around the Joplin/Tulsa areas - then heading west on I-40 to the TX/OK border Thursday morning. It's too far out to call specifics, but the early-day target will probably be north and west of the I-40/TX/OK border intersection point. If the models stay consistent, I might leave earlier in the afternoon to make the drive easier. Waiting until late evening would give the models and realtime data a chance to hint that the setup was headed for the trash at the last minute - but I don't see that happening this time. I'll be worried only if there aren't deep 60+F dewpoints well on their way to the target area by late afternoon tomorrow.

30 Years of Storm Chasing & Photography
Important Message
Dan's YouTube Video Channel
Dan's Twitter feed
Dan's RSS/XML feed

GO: Home | Storm Expeditions | Photography | Extreme Weather Library | Stock Footage | Blog

Featured Weather Library Article:

Lightning Video Ghosting
That strike you got on video was probably not as close as it looks.
More Library Articles

All content © Dan Robinson. All usage requires a paid license - please contact Dan for inquiries.

Web Site Design and Internet Marketing by CIS Internet