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                   Sunday, April 25, 2010 - 10:54PM CDT

4/22, 4/24 expedition logs with photos/video

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During this quiet Sunday evening, I was able to put together two expedition reports from this past week for Thursday the 22nd in Texas and Saturday the 24th in Illinois. I may put something together later for the 23rd in Missouri, but I really don't have decent imagery from that day nor much of anything interesting to report.

LOG w/ PHOTOS, HD VIDEO: Supercell, wedge tornado NW Paducah, TX on 4/22
LOG w/ PHOTOS, HD VIDEO: Storms in IL on 4/24

Now for a quick update on upcoming observing. Forecast models agree on another potent western trough bringing tornado potential back to the Plains/Midwest by Wednesday or Thursday, and continuing for several days. There are some questions about moisture, but I would say the chances for another run to the Plains are fairly good at some point after Wednesday. After this active period, the GFS shows the pattern quieting down for a few days, followed by another potentially big western trough. If these forecasts are right, this could turn out to be a very active tornado season, at least through the middle of May.

Again, I have to keep saying it to avoid the classic criticism: long-range forecasts are difficult to rely on, but they're all we have to go on to make an educated guess. All that said, here is the next installment of the 2010 storm photography expeditions probability table:

2010 Storm Expeditions - Probabilities as of April 25
April 28-May 470%
May 5-1045%
May 11-1555%

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