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                   Monday, April 27, 2009 - 10:00AM CDT

Day 4: Choices to make in Tulsa

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I'm sitting on a rural road near the Tulsa suburb of Catoosa. I headed this way intending to start the drive home, but now I'm hesitating. The upper air pattern (shortwaves with more westerly flow aloft) does not favor significant outbreaks of tornadoes this week, but there is some upper flow to work with, good moisture at the surface, and of course the good old dryline. These are the types of setups that can produce one or two great storms per day. The slower upper flow also means slower storm speeds at the surface. Tornado chances are not as high as they'd be with strong southwest flow aloft, but if a storm can get going and stay isolated, it could be worth being there.

So, I'm waiting on the 12z models and the SPC's latest take on Day 2 to decide what to do. I don't have unlimited chase funds, so I really can't stay out here all week AND come back later if things go crazy in late May.

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