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                   Monday, January 28, 2008 - 3:38AM

Thunderstorms possible Tuesday night

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Update 3:30PM Monday: Tomorrow's risk has been upgraded to a SLIGHT for the lower Ohio Valley area (I updated the graphic below). While not a stellar setup for storms by any means, for late January it is something to watch. The limited to no CAPE (instability) forecast for tomorrow means that little more than a pre-frontal squall line can be expected with this (probably with little or no lightning). I think I may save my expedition money for a better setup, especially since meteorological spring (March 1) is a little more than a month away!

You know it's the dead of winter when storm observers start blogging about Day 2 SPC general thunderstorm outlooks (and at 4AM no less). I last saw lightning sometime back in November, so I'm ready to give some attention to something that can break the annual storm drought. Both the NAM/WRF and the GFS show some good heavy precip returns by Tuesday evening along a sharp cold front, though instability is not going to be that great (the NAM/WRF paints none over KY, OH or WV). The best chances for thunder once again look to be in southern and central Kentucky, mainly south of I-64 - which is what one would expect climatologically for a system happening during this season. It would be nice to live somewhere around Lexington (hey, maybe that's an idea - more on that later).

Charleston has a shot at seeing something with this, so an expedition westward isn't in my plans at this point - but that is subject to change. I don't expect much, but I'll be keeping the cameras charged up and loaded as always.

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