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Major tornado outbreak from Missouri to Wisconsin
The first severe weather outbreak of the year has turned out to be a very significant one, with strong, long-track tornadoes occuring across Missouri and Wisconsin. Unfortunately the tornadoes have already produced significant damage and claimed several lives. Remarkably, the outbreak is still continuing into this morning with a spate of tornado warnings in effect across Missouri at 5:00AM. Due to the distance away that this event occurred, I never really contemplated an expedition - but as with all big events that I miss, I'm regretting that a little. While this system has been a powerful severe weather maker, it should lose steam rapidly as it approaches the Appalachians. I don't think there will be much left to warrant an expedition into Kentucky and Indiana today, but I still think we may see a good round of lightning and thunder here later tonight. Our temperatures and dewpoints will be high enough to support at least weak thunderstorms when the front finally arrives after dark.
LINK: Stormtrack expedition report thread for Monday, January 7
Flooding Thursday, snow possible next week
The models indicate a round of very heavy rain that may result in a potentially potent flood event across West Virginia on Thursday. HPC precip total forecasts are over two inches over the mountain counties, enough to cause flooding if it all falls within a short time. Later, the GFS model is showing the potential for a snow event around the Monday-Tuesday time frame. Snow or not, temperatures will return to much more seasonable levels after the main cold frontal passage tomorrow.