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Possible Midwest weather expedition #2
Update 10:51PM Tuesday:
The 00z NAM still shows a CAPE max just west of the tri-state area for late afternoon tomorrow, but upper support is not as great toward evening. Models don't seem to have a good handle on what is happening currently, so I will have to defer any speculation about Wednesday's prospects until the morning.
Update 4:05PM Tuesday:
Officially a no-go for today in Kentucky. The setup has really tanked from what it was last night, nothing more than a lightning play now. With storms likely here around Charleston tonight, there's no reason to go out of state this afternoon. The NAM has backed off of the Kentucky CAPE forecast for tomorrow, but I still think that a KY/OH target could be viable. I will hold off on any decision on observing tomorrow until the morning.
Update 10:58AM Tuesday:
I'm not liking the developments to the west for today. It doesn't look like much clearing is going to take place north of the Tennessee border, while more importantly the second MCS (thunderstorm complex) currently approaching looks like it will maintain its organization and structure through the region, instead of fading and allowing more isolated redevelopment later this afternoon. As of right now I'm going to hold off on leaving for southern Kentucky unless it becomes apparent that things will evolve differently. A more probable scenario would be to start the trip with an I-64 lightning expedition later tonight.
I'm considering taking the next four days to observe storms Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana and Illinois for what seems like a good string of severe weather setups for the region. Each day's setup is not very far from home, but I'd save money in gas by staying out and either camping in the truck or getting a cheap hotel room rather than going home each night. I have web site work that I will need to take on the road with me, which will take up my pre-chase mornings in any Starbucks I can find.
The first setup is in Kentucky tomorrow, followed by Wednesday in possibly the same area but farther north. Thursday and Friday look like Indiana and Ohio, maybe even Kentucky again. Exact target for Tuesday is pending the evolution of the convective complexes approaching the area from Missouri, but for now I'm thinking somewhere between Somerset to Bowling Green.
I'm not 100% sure I'm going to jump on this, but I'll make a decision by 10 or 11AM. As always I'll keep the blog updated when I can.