Storm Highway by Dan Robinson
Weather, photography and the open roadClick for an important message
Storm Highway by Dan RobinsonClick for an important message
Home | Blog Index | Blog Archives | Christianity & Faith Essays | Storm Chasing Essays

                   Tuesday, June 2, 2009 - 10:01AM

Setups looking more conditional

By DAN ROBINSON
Editor/Photographer
Important Message 30 Years of Storm Chasing & Photography Dan's YouTube Video Channel Dan's Twitter feed Dan's RSS/XML feed

The ECMWF model has been worrisome in recent days due to its refusal to agree entirely with the GFS about the weekend pattern. It has the jet more west and north, then transitions everything quickly to an eastern trough with ridging/NW flow over the Plains once more. The GFS upper air and moisture forecast looks nice, but there is a massive cap (with 700mb temps topping 12°C - above the threshold for realistic breakability).

The capping may be the deal-breaker on a trip #2 for me. I will just have to wait until the target days start falling within the NAM/WRF horizon - by then the other models should have a better handle on things as well. If I see precip consistently breaking out in that capped environment, I may give it a try.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of the second Plains storm chase expedition starting on a particular date:

2009 Storm Chasing & Photography Expedition #2 - Departure Date Probability as of June 2
June 1-733%
June 8-1533%
No trip #234%

It's nice to see that somebody else is looking at this through non-SDS glasses. I've never had success with 700mb temps >12c, so I'm not too excited ATTM. So there are really 2 potential flies in the ointment here. 1) Frontal passage scouring moisture and 2) Thermonuclear capping inversion. WOW, the verification number for this post was a pretty nice storm chase day for us ;-)
- Posted by Justin Teague from Tulsa, OK

The 12Z Euro model is showing a great trough around June 12. And yeah - that verification number is no coincidence :)
- Posted by Dan R. from Charleston, WV

30 Years of Storm Chasing & Photography
Important Message
Dan's YouTube Video Channel
Dan's Twitter feed
Dan's RSS/XML feed

GO: Home | Storm Expeditions | Photography | Extreme Weather Library | Stock Footage | Blog

Featured Weather Library Article:

Lightning myths
Take a look at these common lightning myths. You might be surprised!
More Library Articles

All content © Dan Robinson. All usage requires a paid license - please contact Dan for inquiries.

Web Site Design and Internet Marketing by CIS Internet