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                   Monday, June 4, 2007 - 8:00AM EDT

Outbreak setup

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SPC Day 3 outlook for Wednesday

With the Lord's blessing, I have mananged to budget for what I think may be the worst-case scenario for the possible repair bill that my HVAC system might end up needing today. I have enough funds to make the storm observing expedition if it looks like a sure bet at tornadoes - and as it's looked all along, this morning it still appears that way. The parameters for tornadoes Wednesday look the most potent that we've seen all season, and nice southwest flow at 500mb continues on the Plains through the following days.

Wednesday's target is a long way away, in southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska - meaning we might have to take the Route 35 road out of West Virginia up through Indianapolis and Chicago. Those are notoriously high traffic areas, meaning we'll need as much travel time as possible. Providing that the central air system repair doesn't go over budget, we'll plan for a departure early tomorrow morning - which should get us to a preliminary target of Souix Falls in plenty of time.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Storm Observing Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of June 4
June 5-1075%
No trip25%

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