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                   Saturday, May 12, 2007 - 9:50AM EDT

Forecast update for May 12

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Just a quick note to comment on the nice trough showing up on the extended GFS model for the May 27-29 time frame.

GFS 500mb forecast for May 27

Again, this is too far away to make any solid plans, due to the unreliability of models beyond 7 days. However, this trough has been consistently showing up on the models for the past couple of days, allowing for a little higher confidence that this general pattern might be a good possibility. What we won't know is exactly how deep the trough will be, how far north or south it will end up, or if it will vanish from the forecast altogether. Its very presence now, however, warrants a slight adjustment to our probability table.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Storm Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 12
May 12-184%
May 19-2515%
May 26-June 242%
June 3-1536%
No trip3%

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