Storm Highway by Dan Robinson
Weather, photography and the open roadClick for an important message
Storm Highway by Dan RobinsonClick for an important message
Home | Blog Index | Blog Archives | Christianity & Faith Essays | Storm Chasing Essays

                   Friday, May 18, 2007 - 11:05AM EDT

Holding out for June

Important Message 30 Years of Storm Chasing & Photography Dan's YouTube Video Channel Dan's Twitter feed Dan's RSS/XML feed

As the arrival of next week's system gets closer, the models' depiction of it generally can be trusted more and more. Right now, out of the whole system next week, Tuesday looks like it holds the best chance for tornadoes in a string of less-than-perfect setups. The trough kicks into the Plains, with strong winds aloft over top of 60s+F dewpoints. The hotspot on the GFS at this point appears to be central Kansas once again.

GFS 500mb forecast for May 22

GFS surface dewpoint forecast for May 22

Tuesday is the only day that I see on the models that has any real promise. Other days, the moisture is either too meager or too far south of the strong upper-level winds. Interestingly enough, Thursday looks like it could produce some significant severe weather in Ohio, with the front end of the strong 500mb trough blasting over good moisture at the surface. I think we may be missing a marginal tornado day on Tuesday by doing this, but I still believe that waiting for something more significant and longer-lived in June is the better plan.

That said, the past few days of model runs have still not shown any consistent signals of a strong western trough. All we can do is wait.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Storm Chasing & Photography Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 18
May 16-180%
May 19-2515%
May 26-June 215%
June 3-1540%
No trip30%

30 Years of Storm Chasing & Photography
Important Message
Dan's YouTube Video Channel
Dan's Twitter feed
Dan's RSS/XML feed

GO: Home | Storm Expeditions | Photography | Extreme Weather Library | Stock Footage | Blog

Featured Weather Library Article:

Lightning & towers, skyscrapers
See how lightning really does strike the same place twice!
More Library Articles

All content © Dan Robinson. All usage requires a paid license - please contact Dan for inquiries.

Web Site Design and Internet Marketing by CIS Internet