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Wednesday, May 19, 2010 - 4:38AM CDT

Calling off today

By DAN ROBINSON

Editor/Photographer

Update 9:14AM Wednesday, (Posted via Office from New Baden, IL):
Called off the chase. Too many factors going against today, both weather and non-weather related. I had some work items to take care of this morning that put me behind schedule, and I didn't think I would make it to the target in sufficient time. Forecast soundings had me worried about too much convection going up too early, putting the tornadoes farther west and south before upscale growth into an MCS ends that show by evening. I've been very busy this week and my sleep patterns are off - a chase today would result in a very long sleep-deprived marathon. The truck needs a front end alignment, and I didn't like the idea of a major trip before that was done.

I'll miss some tornadoes today due to this choice, but I'm OK with that. I'm not a tornadoes-at-all-costs observer. The next round of setups aren't far off, and there could even be some lightning here over the next couple of days.

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Update 4:35AM Wednesday, (Posted via Office from New Baden, IL):
Today's setup ended up being too hard too ignore. Departing STL here by 6AM, headed for Oklahoma City.

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2010 Storm Expeditions - Probabilities as of May 19

May 19-21

May 22-26

50%

May 27-31

45%

Dan, I hope you don't get too attached to New Baden. For opportunities, such as today's event in Oklahoma, or yesterday's in the Texas panhandle, you perhaps need to live further west.
- Posted by John from North Texas

John, that would probably be true if seeing tornadoes meant more to me than it does. I definitely thought long and hard about moving out to the Plains - but in the end, the Midwest seemed liked the best balance between things that were important to me (family, job, observing, etc). I'm looking forward to the Midwest's summer season, when we'll get our supercells/tornadoes close to home, and without the storm chaser crowds :)
- Posted by Dan R. from New Baden, IL