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Waiting for clarity
It is difficult to make sense of the past couple of model runs, which have not been as consistent as I'd like. The last couple of GFS runs place a compact and strengthening 500mb trough taking shape over the northern Plains on Tuesday and moving eastward. The position of the trough and attendant moisture at the surface suggest severe weather events as follows: Nebraska to North Dakota on Tuesday 29th, Iowa and Minnesota on Wednesday the 30th, Iowa and Wisconsin on Thursday the 31st, and northern Indiana and Ohio on June 1. After that, it looks generally unsettled across the eastern US, with severe storms a good possibility in spots every day.
Long-range models haven't changed much today for the Plains, still with no sign of a good western trough.
It's too early to nail down the specifics, but right now I'm leaning toward gearing up to observe storms whatever comes up next week, whether it is in Illinois, Ohio, New York or North Carolina.
Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:
|2007 Storm Observing Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 25|
|May 31-June 5||10%|
|Non-Plains storm observing expedition||45%|
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