Storm Highway by Dan Robinson
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                   Saturday, May 29, 2010 - 1:44AM CDT

Great Plains 2010 season epilogue

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If long-range models are correct, this could be my final post for the 2010 Plains tornado season. Aside from some possible events in the far north (Dakotas) late next week, the annual 'final curtain' summer ridging pattern may be establishing itself in the next 5 to 10 days according to the GFS and Euro models. This means the faster mid and upper level flow is making its seasonal migration northward - putting an effective end to peak tornado season in the southern and central Plains. I don't expect there to be any more high-probability tornado setups within a reasonable/affordable drive through the typical end of the spring season (which for me has always been before June 15), and so I'm almost certain that my 2010 Plains trip season is done. I'm allowing for the potential that mid-June may produce one last gasp worth observing, but I'm not counting on it. I also may consider a two or three-day Nebraska trip in late June and July for one of their extreme instability/marginal flow/outflow boundary setups that are known for producing the occasional monster supercell. That kind of trip will be a last-minute thing however.

All things considered, I'm pretty satisfied with this spring's season, with five Plains tornado intercepts on the books for the year. The May 20 Sedalia, MO tornado makes #6 for the season, though I count that as a Midwest event rather than a Plains one. I'm anticipating at least a couple more as the Midwestern summer storm season and its attendant tornado chances begin ramping up across Missouri, Illinois and Indiana - lasting through the end of August. So, barring an unexpected return of strong southwest flow to the southern and central Plains (or the odd Nebraska trip), that will do it for my regularly-scheduled Plains 2010 sub-blog. Until next year.....

2010 Storm Expeditions - Probabilities as of May 29
May 29-310%
June 1-615%
June 7-1520%

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