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Spotty black ice possible Wednesday across KY/OH/WV/PA
I'm a little concerned about a freezing rain (black ice) icy road event taking place across mainly western Ohio Wednesday morning, and possibly affecting surrounding states as well. The basic ingredients for freezing precipitation are in place: 1.) clear skies and rapid radiational cooling in progress areawide, with temps below freezing in many areas and set to be solidly in the upper 20s everywhere by morning - and 2.) an area of rain showers in Illinois moving eastward toward this cold surface air.
The RUC and NAM models have the precip drying up by morning, which is believable due to the dry atmosphere and high surface dewpoint depressions across the region. However, the 4km WRF model maintains showers into southwest Ohio through daybreak. The latter situation would mean an icy road threat in the Cincinnati/Dayton areas during morning rush hour.
The bottom line is, rain moving toward below-freezing surface temps is a reason to go on high alert. I am currently on standby for a possible trip northwestward on Route 35 to investigate, updates to come later if I do end up leaving.